Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

10-08-2005, 10:47 PM

Backing a layoff horse is an "iffy" proposition since you are depending upon past performances that are not recent. You have to "fill in the blanks" when considering just WHY the layoff was undertaken and what has the trainer done to get his charge back to the game today. What WAS that horse like, and what WILL it be like today. At Keeneland today (10/08), similar layoff logic in projecting to today's pace totally BOMBED in the 6th (Bwana Charlie) but was successful in the 8th (Host).

Anytime that one is considering a layoff horse it has to be at least 4 or 5 to 1 to make that "iffiness" worthwhile.

I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses.

Here are some of mine: 1) has done well after a layoff before 2) blade runners (turfers) do better than dirt horses 3) it helps that the trainer is a one of the better ones and 4) sprinters don't do as well as routers.

10-08-2005, 10:47 PM	#1
TaWee Guest Posts: n/a	Layoff logic Backing a layoff horse is an "iffy" proposition since you are depending upon past performances that are not recent. You have to "fill in the blanks" when considering just WHY the layoff was undertaken and what has the trainer done to get his charge back to the game today. What WAS that horse like, and what WILL it be like today. At Keeneland today (10/08), similar layoff logic in projecting to today's pace totally BOMBED in the 6th (Bwana Charlie) but was successful in the 8th (Host). Anytime that one is considering a layoff horse it has to be at least 4 or 5 to 1 to make that "iffiness" worthwhile. I want to ask the group what guidelines they use to consider these horses. Here are some of mine: 1) has done well after a layoff before 2) blade runners (turfers) do better than dirt horses 3) it helps that the trainer is a one of the better ones and 4) sprinters don't do as well as routers.