Quote:
Originally Posted by mufasa
OK Rich, I am working or should I say suppose to be working.
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[quote]ok so if a different horse has now been projected leading at the 2nd call HOW is the race going to be WON.
Early
Other than Early
??
screen shot of the #7 who you project to lead at 2nd call. Let's use his last race 2nd call time of 113.7 (113.3 in fifths) as the time though I see your point about the horses pushing one another faster. [end of quote]
Rich, if the designated early horse can not go all the way then it is an OTE race.
I am thinking the #7 horse takes the lead away from the #2 horse by the half mile in something like 1:13.2/5ths which might be a little too fast but he is definitely not letting the #2 horse run the half in 1:14 and change. This is my basis for wining this race with now the # 10 horse because again the #7 horse has run too fast to put away the #2 horse. Even if the #7 horse were to run the half in his more seemingly comfortable 1:13 and 3/5ths the #10 horse with his solid power line and power move in his 5th pace line should blow right by him.
The #10 horse in his 5PL back ran a nice race against a 1:11.3/5ths with a first call time in the 8.3F race of 46.0 so he is a P that can stay comfortably close at today’s project numbers and pounce at the half to win the race. In addition as support the #10 horse in his 7th race back in the slop showed that he can stay close at today’s projected pace.
The only question that could remain for me would be conditioning, and forgive me for bringing this up, but his 2nd race back IMF and his last race of running within 3.5L to the half suggest some good form. I would consider the #10 horse without this form consideration but since it is there why not mention it.
Thanks,
Robert