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Mufasa,
Excuse me for intruding, I'm fairly new to this site - but I might be able to assist in light of that.
Many years ago Ray Taulbot made a statement that transformed the why I look at horse races in general and pacelines specifically.
He stated "A winning horse either sets or overcomes the pace of the race it runs against." The key is to look at the way a horse ran in relation to the paces in its individual races. This way you get a feel for how a horse runs when the pace is hot, moderate, or slow.
The premise of the matchup isn't about the fractions your horse ran in: ala adjusted times, the premise of the matchup is about visualizing how your horse runs against various pace scenerios: ala raw times versus running position. So using adjusted times totally destroys the entire premise that the matchup is based upon.
Well before you can get an idea of how this horse might run today you have to project a pace, once you have projected the pace of todays race, now you have a basis for comparison.
Try to visualize the position this horse likes to run in from the past performances, and then pick a line that matches how that horse most likely will run today. Once you have selected that paceline then you can compare the pace of the chosen line to the projected pace of this race to determine how your horse will hold up.
Dallas
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