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Good work, Richie as usual, but I wouldn't have got this race. I would have made this other than early all the way and gone with the 2.
1. The 4 had a 5 length lead at the half and I would have surmised that there is no way he is going to get this kind of lead today.
2. It's true the 8 probably won't get his desired lead at the first call, but 4 races back he fought off a challenge and survived.
3. Now, if this is a case of eliminating the 8 because he can't get his "needed" lead at the first call and then evaluating the race from that point forward as if he didn't exist, then I have a little bit better time seeing it. But I still would have felt that the 8 would bother the 4 enough to compromise them both. The four shows no wins in his PPs, and only one good OTE race (sustained) against a very slow pace.
4. Early races are still the toughest ones for me to get. Did you think this race would run OTE as it did? The four pressed and won. Or did you think it would run early, and the 4 would challenge the 8 and put him away? I do notice that this often happens where you project a race early and the early horse you like wins pressing. Sometimes it works out the other way around--an OTE horse will go wire-to-wire.
5. I also think tandems, and evaluating tandems are extremely important. I still have a hard time seeing them in RDSS, and many times I forget to look at them altogether. If I do look at them, they just don't properly register. I am just so used to seeing the tandems out to the right that going to another screen to observe them disassociates me from the race. Either I'm going to have to get over that (somehow) or figure out a way to convince Ted to show the tandems in a different way.
I just realized something. I'm doing a 100 race test where I'm mixing MatchUp with Sartin, and 60 races in I have only looked at the tandems one time!
That was yesterday in a race I never would have got had I not looked at the tandems. A $20 horse too. Tandems, especially last race tandems need to be looked at and analyzed, and many times I just don't bother for one reason or another. For some reason when I look at them, I am unable to associate them into the overall picture using RDSS. This is not a knock on the software. I realize that the way tandems are set up might be the only way it can be achieved. I'm sure the problem is more with me than with RDSS.
But when I look at tandems using a PDF file or the racing form they light up like a Christmas tree, and I immediately enter them into consideration. This is a major problem with me, and something that is causing me great concern. I don't know what can be done about it either. Out of sight out of mind I guess.
Good hit, and good analysis. Food for thought.
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