thanks for the reply. Your application of this method is very powerful and well thought out.
Your answer, quoting Jim suggests that I might be right. I would suggest that tandems are useful when the race suits your projected pace, and are not useful when the pace is radically different.
When we look at the #9 horse
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never faced the 22 pace plus was beaten by the 5 in a tandem last race
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I can understand elimination by the 22.0 pace, which is fast at MNR for this level, but the tandem race was 22.9 which is a tad more customary of a pace, leaves me still curious.
Also, this leads to another question. If the horse never faced a 22.0 pace, and is more of a "sustained" type, should that matter, especially if the pace is out of sorts for that track/distance/surface par? It might be safe to suggest that the faster they go against the par, the more it benefits horses that are late in the field, much like it benefited the 5.