Quote:
Originally Posted by ray lopez
The Morning Liner Ultimate is a money management program that maximizes
your earning potential but your odds lines must be pretty accurate.It gives
you the expected growth rate and you can use a full-Kelly or partial
Kelly to make your wagers.I am studying it...I am just curious if any of you
guys have used it or have any comments about it...How accurate are the
odds lines of our computer programs for Kelly betting and can our odds
lines be use by the money management programs by the late Dick Mitchell
or Meadow or Morning Liner?...
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Ray, the Odds Lines of any Sartin program I've seen are woefully inaccurate. In short, "no," you cannot use them for any money management program.
You can make your own Odds Lines, but this is no small task.
If you do make your own Odds Lines, and are satisfied with them, the most logical way to proceed is to bet 25% Kelly. This is what my friend, the noted author Bill Ziemba, does.
Failing that, use a percentage of your bankroll. For example, bet 2% of your total bank if you're in a hurry to get to a betting level you want. Otherwise, 1% is prudent.
Betting 10% of your bankroll as Sartin suggests is folly and will, for all intents and purposes, bankrupt the best handicapper on the planet.
These 2% and 1% numbers may seem painfully small to some folks, but there are many reasons to bet only a tiny portion of your bankroll. That's an entire subject left for another day.
Dick Mitchell suggested that the Sartin method of putting 60% of your bet on the shorter of your two odds horses was exactly the opposite of what you should do to maximize your return. And he's right.
However, Mitchell ignores all the psychological factors that are inherent in the inevitable losing streaks you will encounter.
Personally, I recommend betting 50% on each of your selections if they are both 3-1 or over. You'll make more money in the long run this way, more than you'll make hedging.
What if they're both not 3-1 or over? If one of them is 5/2 and the other is long, then bet 60% on the 5/2 shot.
If they're both chalk, skip betting for that race. Or, bet one horse to win. That's up to the individual's preference.
Sartin suggested betting 60% to place and 40% to win if you're only betting one horse. That's good for psychological padding which is important, even if you do sacrifice some Return On Investment.