Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Houndog · 04-10-2007, 01:11 PM

More of an artform than an exact science.

1) I try to stay away from a paceline that is atypical of a horses usual performance.

2) I try to stay away from projecting or extracting a paceline if at all possible, especially if projecting since more often than not they project too fast in programs such as Thoromation.

3) I try to avoid wire to wire unchallenged winning pacelines, especially older horses since they come out as monsters on the readouts, but often lose.

4) Sorry Jeff, this is more than 3, but I tend not to go too far back for a paceline with cheaper claiming horses. On the other hand I will go back for a paceline with classier horses.

5) I ask myself why did the horse run good or ran badly in it's last race. Was it the first race off of a layoff? Wrong distance, traffic problems, etc. I need to have a good reason to discount a horse's last race before I want to go back for another paceline. If none of these reasons are present I tend to be less forgiving of a bad last race performance. You may miss a couple of winners, but you will also be eliminating many horses that are in the downward spiral of their form cycle.

04-10-2007, 01:11 PM	#19
Houndog Grade 1 Join Date: Oct 2005 Posts: 1,258	Paceline Selection More of an artform than an exact science. 1) I try to stay away from a paceline that is atypical of a horses usual performance. 2) I try to stay away from projecting or extracting a paceline if at all possible, especially if projecting since more often than not they project too fast in programs such as Thoromation. 3) I try to avoid wire to wire unchallenged winning pacelines, especially older horses since they come out as monsters on the readouts, but often lose. 4) Sorry Jeff, this is more than 3, but I tend not to go too far back for a paceline with cheaper claiming horses. On the other hand I will go back for a paceline with classier horses. 5) I ask myself why did the horse run good or ran badly in it's last race. Was it the first race off of a layoff? Wrong distance, traffic problems, etc. I need to have a good reason to discount a horse's last race before I want to go back for another paceline. If none of these reasons are present I tend to be less forgiving of a bad last race performance. You may miss a couple of winners, but you will also be eliminating many horses that are in the downward spiral of their form cycle.