Quote:
Originally Posted by froggy
Tonight for my first time at Penn. I was constantly hit by the fluctuating odds.
I do waggercapping and on one of my winners I got paid $5.60. Three minutes to post I was sure he was 8/1. Later on in the 7th #10 Bobs Valentine was a horse that I liked a lot, but since he was 5th in BL/BL and only 4/1 several minutes to post,I bet two higher ranked horses with better odds. Bobs Valentine went wire to wire and paid $24.20.
I believe this happens when the handle is small.
I am going to look at Evangeline Downs and if the same type of thing is happening there its back to the larger mutual's for me.
I'm not a gambler, I don't do this for the thrill of it.
I'm in to make a steady profit.
I don't need to go 10-15 races to make a score.
I'm doing alright with my puny but steady $1.35 ROI
Froggy
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There's nothing wrong with a 1.35 ROI and everyone needs to work the tracks they are most comfortable with. The odds do fluctuate more at the smaller tracks, but at many of them you can get some guidance from the morning line.
The only horse I found paying $5.60 at Penn tonight was "I Thee Wed" in the 6th, and it was the 5/2 morning line favorite. You are simply not going to get a morning line favorite at 8/1 unless it shows up in the post parade with a missing leg.
Bob's Valentine was 10/1 morning line and went off just over 11/1. I didn't have the card, but you mentioned he was your 5th choice. It sounds like somebody put a big bet on him at some time. I always watch the pool as well as the odds, so I can tell how much it takes to move the line.
I used to place my bets at 2 min, to post and wasn't usually hit too badly by late odds changes, but they do change, at almost all tracks and more so at the smaller ones. I've found that learning which morning line oddsmakers I can truat has made life much less stressful. Many of them are pretty good and you soon learn to spot the ones that aren't
Smaller tracks can be very profitable. They just require a little change in perspective.
Dick...