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Is your chart the Kentucky Derby chart or is the chart of the prep race? Assuming this is the Kentucky Derby chart, 2020 was the Covid Derby, so I am guessing it was a lot faster since the horses were 4 months older. So that is probably not a valid race for predicting non September Derbies.
Using Howard math, throw out the slow in 2019 and the fast in 2016 and the Derby runs fairly consistent. Looks like 1:36.75 is the average. So within 3 lengths of that is a good indicator I take it.
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