I thought I would post this race because it poses some interesting questions that we all face regularly.
First, the Entries Screen. We have an 8-horse field with one scratch in a 6F race. The early indication is a Neutral race with 15 Early Speed Points.
Next stop the Leverage Pace page. Our two weakest looking horses on the Entries scree are the 3 and the 7. They are also the weakest on the L/P screen in terms of Math 4-Score, RX3 and Leverage pace. Our data base for PRX sprints indicates 94% of the time the winner is in the top 5 RX3. The place horse is in the top 5, 85% of the time and the show horse is in the top 5 RX3 85% of the time. Which puts our mathematical expectation of a trifecta in the top 5 at 68% of the time. So we feel pretty comfortable demoting the 3 and 7 to secondary status. We note also that we have 4 horses that meet our leverage pace scores in order to earn a blue arrow as a candidate for the key horse. The 8, 2 and 5 have the strongest scores across the board. Since we are initially expecting a neutral race the 5 and 8 appear to have the strongest scores in SR, TE BL/BL, 4-Score, RXscores and LP ans well as TPR for a neutral race. 8 has the best EPR and 5 has the best LPR. Those two look like the strongest candidates for the Key. The 1 horse looks the weakest of the blue arrow horses.
We move to the BL/BL Screen. Here we see the 5 horse as our #1 tier horse (as my friend Tim calls it.) She looks particularly strong if the race runs neutral or late. A score I have been watching and seems to have some power as a “Final” predictor when choosing between your top candidates is the BAL score. Note here the 5 has the best BAL score. See the Energy screen for more info on the balance of Early and Late energy expenditure. It looks like the 5 is a little better than the 8 if the race runs neutral or late. She is my choice for key.
The segments screen confirms our analysis. It shows our 5 horse coming up #1 on both sides of the screen as we might expect with our neutral projection. But wait we have a couple of questions arise? What about her 62 day layoff? What about her 1st fraction where she falls 10.7 back?
Let’s check her past performances.
The 5’s past performances.
To be continued in the next frame.