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Originally Posted by Jake
I don't believe that it does give you a solid point to start with, Dick. I think that the Pace Leverage Method actually obscures what is working here. You documented the percentiles for Top 5/Top 3 RDSS factors and the Composite Ratings factors with two summary graphs in the your overview PDF, generously shared by the way both by you and Bill Lyster. Immense amount of work there.
It's in those numbers that tell where the strength of the method lies, Dick. The real focus should be in the Blue Arrow contenders and the composite ratings that can be married to a flexible exacta key or trifecta key horse approach. Conceptually, while it may seem a logical approach, I see no evidence that following a pace pressure route thru NP and the pressurized Speed Range brings additional handicapping value here.
Sometimes, statistically, less is better. A skinny Leverage Pace might just work best for some here.
Thanks, Dick. Appreciate all your work, even some I disagree with. Keep the teaching going.
Jake
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Jake, I love the conversation going back and forth because I learn from that too. When I say, "a good place to start", I am basically referring to the arrow horses. Even at the Breeders Cup with full fields and a lot of great horses, look how often the arrow horses, for lack of a better term, provided the win or place horse. When you can use RX3 to get to 5 contenders. Then examine the arrow horses knowing you have a great expectation of having the win or place in 2 or 3 horses. At the Breeders Cup there were 14 playable races and 13 of the races had the Win or Place in the 2 or 3 Arrow horses. How you choose which one to bet or leverage can be different. I like to figure out the match up and the amount of pressure and which horse those factors favor. The starting point for me is getting down to 2 or 3 horses quickly.
Thanks to you, Tim and Don for your continued interest.
Dick