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Follow UP on last post
Six races at 8.3 furlongs won by horses with % med out of 90% win range. All things considered, there are a lot of similarities in these out of range % med winners. Read on.
All races from PRX and shown in the current Model.
10/7/24-r10; 10/29/24-r5;1/1/2025-r3;2/10/25-r4;5/6/25-r2 and 5/7/25-r3.
4 were top 3 RX3, 1 was Rx3-4th and one 5th
2 were NP E1, 3 were NP E2 and one was NP L1, So ALL were NP horses!
In the 5/6 race the best of last 3 line was worst ever in a race class several levels higher than horse had ever raced. Using line 2 a 7f race at or about this level, in this 8.3 furlong made it a clear leader/winner.
3 horses won wire to wire and the other 3 ran 2nd at all early calls then pushed on to win.
Using the RC (race class) only 3 winners were dropping in class by 10 or more points, e.g. 88 to 77; one was racing at level, one had a small class decrease.
I reworked all races with BOLT lines and looked for horses that lost more than one length to eliminate them. THIS JUST POINTS OUT THAT YOU HAVE TO REVIEW RDSS VERSION OF BEST OF LAST THREE FOR OBVIOUS ERRORS. With one exception most of the races had only 6-7 horses. Exacta and trifecta in top five in all these races.
On the Segments screen if you line up the horses by either Running Style or Speed Bias points it will show you things like E horses that cannot make lead and no matter how they apparently finish will not be in contention. I know you know this.
That's all folks......
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