Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Bill Lyster · 08-02-2024, 02:23 PM

THIS IS INFO FOR KEY HORSES ONLY

There are a number of interesting factors with high hit rates for turf races at Saratoga. Study includes 30 races for non maidens.

From the Original Screen, horses that finished in the top 2 in the auto pick best of last three in their chosen race, in other words horses whose chosen race shows a win or place effort, win 60% of the time. Top 3-top 4 info is 83-87%

From the left side of the Segments Screen we get CBL computed beaten lengths. 97% of all KEY horses finished no worse than 3.0 lengths back. Only 1 of 30 KEY horses lost ground between 1c-2c-FIN! I noted that 4 horses lost ground between 1c and 2c but then gained more lengths at the finish such that there was a net gain between 1c-FIN. 1 horse was 3.8 back at 1C and 3.8 back at FIN. Note that about 20% of actual winning horses exceeded 3.0 at the FIN on this screen, so again, this info is only for KEY horses.

Turf Maidens KEY horse info

There have been 12 turf maiden races that I could use.

The top 2 TPP horses (ENERGY screen) were KEY horses 67 % and the rarely viewed Fractal N the top 2 were 75%. 11 of 12 Key horses were </= 3.1 on the CBL part of the Segments screen. Only 1 of 12 horses lost ground 1C-FIN.

08-02-2024, 02:23 PM	#2
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,494	Possible new turf factors to help in determining good plays on turf THIS IS INFO FOR KEY HORSES ONLY There are a number of interesting factors with high hit rates for turf races at Saratoga. Study includes 30 races for non maidens. From the Original Screen, horses that finished in the top 2 in the auto pick best of last three in their chosen race, in other words horses whose chosen race shows a win or place effort, win 60% of the time. Top 3-top 4 info is 83-87% From the left side of the Segments Screen we get CBL computed beaten lengths. 97% of all KEY horses finished no worse than 3.0 lengths back. Only 1 of 30 KEY horses lost ground between 1c-2c-FIN! I noted that 4 horses lost ground between 1c and 2c but then gained more lengths at the finish such that there was a net gain between 1c-FIN. 1 horse was 3.8 back at 1C and 3.8 back at FIN. Note that about 20% of actual winning horses exceeded 3.0 at the FIN on this screen, so again, this info is only for KEY horses. Turf Maidens KEY horse info There have been 12 turf maiden races that I could use. The top 2 TPP horses (ENERGY screen) were KEY horses 67 % and the rarely viewed Fractal N the top 2 were 75%. 11 of 12 Key horses were </= 3.1 on the CBL part of the Segments screen. Only 1 of 12 horses lost ground 1C-FIN.