What does a chaos race look like and can we use these tools to know when to pass the race. Lets look at a couple of races that I think show us the evidence to support passing.
Let's start with DMR 3 on July 21. We start as always with our top 5 BL/BL horses as our data tells us we have 96% chance of having the Key horse in those 5.
We first notice that all the horses are layoff horses. We next notice how all the 4-Factor horses are missing factors except for the 8. The 3 best RX rated horses are secondary contenders. There is only one horse, the 9, that has a blue arrow in the L/P ratings meaning he is in parameters. We note as supporting evidence that all our contenders are all high odds horses. This race finished 8-6-3. It is possible to make the case for the 8 as the key but he is very late with no early in a race with little pressure up front. This really is a pass race.
Let's look at another race the same day at DMR.
Here again we look at a heavy concentration of layoff horse. Three very long layoff horses in our contenders for the Key. We next note how spread out the 4-Factor rating are. Same is true with the RX factors. The L/P scores shows again only one blue arrow horse, the 11. He is a long layoff horse with no PL or BPP his RX scores are OK and Pace ratings are OK. The only horse with consistent scores is the 3 but he has no early. Pass!
The race comes in 7-5-1. We made a good call to Pass!
Sometimes we encounter races like SAR7 on the 25th of July.
Here we see a 6 horse field and 3 horses, 2,5,and 6, have consistently good ratings across the board. With 15 QSP this race should run nuetral or TPR. I bet the 6 as I felt his ratings were stronger and he had an Early advantage over the other horses. I played him keyed with the 2 and 5. Let's see how I did.
The 3 worst rated horses come in before my 3 top rated horses. Sometimes a race just blows up regardless of our good handicapping.
The best laid plans of mice and men...
Oh well, another race in 15 minutes!