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In a field loaded with off the pace types I would agree that 12 should get lead, but I think his faint heart will be pressured by the only other near presser, the 7. [the other reason I can't back 12 is to win he'd have to run his life best again where there was little pressure. too much to ask, IMO.] However, 7 is 1/17 lifetime with 4 places and 6 shows, so he has pretty much phoned is his dislike to winning. That leaves the 10 and the 4, in that order, with the 10 being closer to the lead. I'll take the 10/4 on top of 10/4/7
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