View Single Post
Old 12-02-2021, 08:58 PM   #34
kahunab
Grade 1
 
kahunab's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Colorado
Posts: 324
How does the Race shape work when all the horses are a P1 or an S1?

In answer to your questions, Bill and Ranchwest, I found this race where all the contendars were P1s. Here is the Entries Screen. While there are problems with this race, ie not a lot of contenders and a maiden, it does demonstrate the answer to your questions.

Name:  Picture1.jpg
Views: 644
Size:  117.1 KB

As you can see here, the only horse with any speed points is the 5 a non-contender for win. How do we call the shading of this race? E or OTE? What do you think?

Name:  Picture2.jpg
Views: 595
Size:  91.3 KB

This looks sort of easy because we get the same winners in both an E and OTE designation. But let’s see what we get from the primary screen.

Name:  Picture3.jpg
Views: 635
Size:  107.5 KB

I would suggest that when you see this picture that you look for the earliest of the contenders to be your focus. Notice 1 and 6 both are earlier than the 2. We want the earliest of the horses as our play. I would suggest that the race will run early. We are looking at the 1 and the 6.

Name:  Picture5.jpg
Views: 610
Size:  136.5 KB

Notice that we are leaning toward betting on two layoff horses and that is always risky. However, the point here is when nobody wants the lead, our earliest “Energy Expenditure” horses are the horses to be looking at for out play. They may actually press in their run but they tend to like to expend their energy early.

Name:  Picture6.jpg
Views: 633
Size:  209.6 KB

We notice here that our horse was a head off at the 2nd call. That is a pretty early run for a presser. Our other contender the 1 ran as many of layoff horses do. He was upfront until the 2nd call and then went to bed.
This race does show us how to look at races where there appears to be no leaders and paceless or when every contender is late. Hope this helps.
__________________
Haakon 47


'Something magical happens when you bring together a group of people from different disciplines with a common purpose.' Mark Stefik Palo Alto Research Centre Fellow
kahunab is offline   Reply With Quote