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Old 09-06-2021, 12:30 AM   #7
Ted Craven
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Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 9,251
Quote:
Originally Posted by ranchwest View Post
So, with 4 contenders, statistically they should hit 25%, but instead it is less than half that. Does balance refer to the difference between EP and LP?
Balance refers to the sum of the ranks of the E/ep Early Energy Potential and L/ep Late Energy Potential. These measures of Early and Late energy were factors Sartin commented were perhaps better than the classic EPR and LPR ratings from the TPR system. In RDSS they are found on the Energy screen.

With 4 remaining contenders, no one would have a Balance exceeding 8; in a field with say 5 contenders, horses with 2 ranks of 4 and 5 or both ranks 5s would exceed a Balance of 8 and thus be good candidates for further culling. It's the (cumulative) Balance between E and L (not likely to steal the lead and survive - too little E, and not likely to carry their energy into the 3rd Fraction to close - too little L.)

The difference between EP and LP in Sartin-speak is called Early/Late Differential and is found on the TPR screen: it is EPR - LPR and is the surplus of Early over Late, or vice versa. We use it to see if a horse is TOO Early or TOO Late, or which one is the LONE counter-energy - who disburses their energy most opposite to the pack, and can pick up the pieces of a fast pace OR be a lone Early energy horse (either a positional front runner or a Early Presser or Presser with a typical energy disbursement pattern better than apparent front runners). Or other observable energy disbursement patterns with clues to how the race will shape up (if the chosen paceline is not atypical for the horse on today's surface and distance).

Ted
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