Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Swifty0x0 · 09-05-2021, 04:23 AM

I recorded 200 races using the top 5 Morning Line as the contenders and entered the winner's RDSS factors into the Model Spreadsheet provided by Ted.

The records include tracks along the east coast from NY to Florida, and some Central Time Zone tracks. All surfaces were included, but only a handful of the records were synthetic surface.

Races not recorded were those carded for 2 year olds, maidens with more than 1 first time starter, and races with less than 5 runners.

Lines chosen were primarily best of last 3 perceptor, and I only changed the line in about 10% of the cases due to the usual reasons (distance, surface, lay off, off track, etc.).

Here's the overall results...

BLBL rank #1 - 25.5% win at average mutuel $7.47
BLBL rank #2 - 24% win at average mutuel $8.66
BLBL rank #3 - 25.5% win at average mutuel $10.59
BLBL rank #4 - 14.5% win at average mutuel $16.44

Therefore, top 3 BLBL ranks had the winner (from the morning line contenders) at 75%. Top 4 BLBL ranks had the winner at 89.5%.

To compare, here are the percentages from the morning line contenders in the Rx categories.
The top 3 Rx1 had winner at 72.5%, top 4 Rx1 had winner 85.5%.
The top 3 Rx2 had winner at 66%, top 4 Rx2 had winner at 83%.
The top 3 Rx3 had winner at 69%, top 4 Rx3 had winner at 84%.

One conclusion: when the morning line contenders are ranked by BLBL it has the winner in its top 3 and top 4 more often than any of the Rx factors.

Another note: The third ranked BLBL shows the best profit margin. In this sample if you had bet only the third ranked BLBL (base $2) hitting 25.5 out of 100 races at $10.59 you'd gross $270.05. That's a profit of $70.05, or 35% ROI (1.35 for those that like it in this form). This tracks with what Doc tried to hammer into everyone about the third ranked contender.

I also broke the data out into all sprints and all routes (for BLBL).

SPRINTS
BLBL #1 wins 29% at $5.67
BLBL #2 wins 21% at $9.32
BLBL #3 wins 26% at $8.28
BLBL #4 wins 14% at $19.72

ROUTES
BLBL #1 wins 26% at $6.51
BLBL #2 wins 34% at $8.32
BLBL #3 wins 22% at $17.16
BLBL #4 wins 14% at $11.24

Note: in routes the third BLBL rank was a gold mine (88.7% ROI if just betting that horse).

Comments and questions?

09-05-2021, 04:23 AM	#1
Swifty0x0 Grade 3 Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 62	Morning Line Contenders Test I recorded 200 races using the top 5 Morning Line as the contenders and entered the winner's RDSS factors into the Model Spreadsheet provided by Ted. The records include tracks along the east coast from NY to Florida, and some Central Time Zone tracks. All surfaces were included, but only a handful of the records were synthetic surface. Races not recorded were those carded for 2 year olds, maidens with more than 1 first time starter, and races with less than 5 runners. Lines chosen were primarily best of last 3 perceptor, and I only changed the line in about 10% of the cases due to the usual reasons (distance, surface, lay off, off track, etc.). Here's the overall results... BLBL rank #1 - 25.5% win at average mutuel $7.47 BLBL rank #2 - 24% win at average mutuel $8.66 BLBL rank #3 - 25.5% win at average mutuel $10.59 BLBL rank #4 - 14.5% win at average mutuel $16.44 Therefore, top 3 BLBL ranks had the winner (from the morning line contenders) at 75%. Top 4 BLBL ranks had the winner at 89.5%. To compare, here are the percentages from the morning line contenders in the Rx categories. The top 3 Rx1 had winner at 72.5%, top 4 Rx1 had winner 85.5%. The top 3 Rx2 had winner at 66%, top 4 Rx2 had winner at 83%. The top 3 Rx3 had winner at 69%, top 4 Rx3 had winner at 84%. One conclusion: when the morning line contenders are ranked by BLBL it has the winner in its top 3 and top 4 more often than any of the Rx factors. Another note: The third ranked BLBL shows the best profit margin. In this sample if you had bet only the third ranked BLBL (base $2) hitting 25.5 out of 100 races at $10.59 you'd gross $270.05. That's a profit of $70.05, or 35% ROI (1.35 for those that like it in this form). This tracks with what Doc tried to hammer into everyone about the third ranked contender. I also broke the data out into all sprints and all routes (for BLBL). SPRINTS BLBL #1 wins 29% at $5.67 BLBL #2 wins 21% at $9.32 BLBL #3 wins 26% at $8.28 BLBL #4 wins 14% at $19.72 ROUTES BLBL #1 wins 26% at $6.51 BLBL #2 wins 34% at $8.32 BLBL #3 wins 22% at $17.16 BLBL #4 wins 14% at $11.24 Note: in routes the third BLBL rank was a gold mine (88.7% ROI if just betting that horse). Comments and questions?