Great example of what I was trying to say from below. Notice how the ASRs get lower when the horse runs farther. After a slow pace line 10 the ASR improves to 88, then retreats when two tries at 6.5 to 84 and 82, then back up to 85 at 6f, down to 82 for 7f, back up to 84 at 6f and further up to 89 (very close to line 9), back down to 82 at 6.5 and once again a little faster for 6f at 85. So for today's distance we have ASRs of 84-82-82 from the bottom up.
I am using line 2 for today's race. If this race was at 6f, I would use one of the higher 6f lines, if at 7f, I would use the lone 7f line and not give the horse the benefit of the doubt for running faster when not running as far.
The TPR number is +10.2 which is right where it should be.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster
Also from Mitch: "Once you get below -15 or above +15 your out of what is a normal variant normal. Once I select all of my lines I then review the variants and create a new norm by seeing what the average is for my chosen lines. Then I see what is abnormal by that standard, if a horse is abnormal I try to seek another line.
Sometimes you can use another line and sometimes your just stuck with it, especially with young horses with limited data. Even if stuck with it, the line provides important information as to its preference to distance or surface. Like a FTS if its horrible I just disregard it and consider it an UNK. Factor."
Have you ever noticed the variants of a horse's first start, especially if it won? Many times you will see a negative -15 and then it goes into its next race against winners and loses but the variant is close to zero or even a little positive, where the horse finishes up the track with no noted excuses. If all the horses in race 2 have positive variants, this horse's chances are probably over stated.
How many times do you see a near zero or positive variant win with an adjusted speed rating (ASR) of say 75 jump and in its second race to an ASR of 88 with a -15 variant? Yes, expect that a second race SHOULD show improvement, but not all do. But in my mind no horse jumps more than a few ASR points from race to race, certainly NOT 13 or more.
In this regard, pay attention to the distance being run. Early in their careers young horses often start out at 5 or 5.5 furlongs and post relatively high ASRs, but look what happens when the distances stretch out. An ASR of 75 at 5.5f often turns out to be an ASR of 73 at six furlongs, and perhaps 71 at 6.5 furlongs. In other words, the ability of the horse is declining as the distance gets longer. You will also find some horses get better as the distance progresses so you have to make that judgment in your line selection. Look at the TPR graph along with these other observations. To me its a dead give away if the TPR total is lower as the races get longer. Sometimes the EPR gets bigger with corresponding lowering of the LPR.
When I first started in racing reading the form, you would often hear trainers say a horse was a certain distance horse, like "this horse is a perfect middle distance horse (8.0f - 8.5f) but cannot last to 9F". Another instance in many 7f races you will find horses that only run 6.5f or 7f, but never successfully go two turns. Many times by taking this view of the PPs you can prevent yourself from choosing a line not at today's distance that contradicts what distance the horse is good at. This is one really good reason to choose lines within .5 F of today's distance, after determining if a shorter distance line is appropriate. Most often I use a line at the race distance no matter how far back, as long as the energy expenditure is in the horses normal range and the TPR graph supports it.
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