Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 06-16-2021, 09:03 AM

I would forget about adjusting the 3rd FR by Pizzola's PBS numbers and not recommend them at all.

Sartin's adjustments have proven to be far superior, all done automatically by the computer which make them consistent and not prone to mistakes. Sartin's also considers the Match Up of todays race which changes race to race by the contenders within the race.

The bottom line is this and the fly in the ointment to Pizzola's PBR is a false narrative because each horse when gutted has its own deceleration pattern. The best decelerate gradually while others stop on a dime. Therefore no neat rule such as adjusting 2 to 1 in the 3rd FR is valid. Just a SWAG ( scientific wild ass guess) verses a WAG (wild ass guess) BTW a SWAG is slightly better as there is some reason behind it verses throwing a dart at it. Even Sartin has said it could be as much as 4 to 1 in a route. The Match Up considers this and is quite more effective as far who can survive that early pace.

Sartin teachings and RDSS is about picking winners which are the spring board to launching success. Winners are the key to all bets regardless of what they pay. Pizzola's is just about getting prices or longshots. Its also one dimensional because its limited to only one factor, his version of pace numbers. Longshots are multi-dimensional and come from many factors, not just pace. Any multifaceted approach would be a better path to travel on.

Mitch44

06-16-2021, 09:03 AM	#24
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,841	I would forget about adjusting the 3rd FR by Pizzola's PBS numbers and not recommend them at all. Sartin's adjustments have proven to be far superior, all done automatically by the computer which make them consistent and not prone to mistakes. Sartin's also considers the Match Up of todays race which changes race to race by the contenders within the race. The bottom line is this and the fly in the ointment to Pizzola's PBR is a false narrative because each horse when gutted has its own deceleration pattern. The best decelerate gradually while others stop on a dime. Therefore no neat rule such as adjusting 2 to 1 in the 3rd FR is valid. Just a SWAG ( scientific wild ass guess) verses a WAG (wild ass guess) BTW a SWAG is slightly better as there is some reason behind it verses throwing a dart at it. Even Sartin has said it could be as much as 4 to 1 in a route. The Match Up considers this and is quite more effective as far who can survive that early pace. Sartin teachings and RDSS is about picking winners which are the spring board to launching success. Winners are the key to all bets regardless of what they pay. Pizzola's is just about getting prices or longshots. Its also one dimensional because its limited to only one factor, his version of pace numbers. Longshots are multi-dimensional and come from many factors, not just pace. Any multifaceted approach would be a better path to travel on. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 06-16-2021 at 09:06 AM.