Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - The Derby could be very contentious this year

Bill Lyster · 04-24-2021, 12:02 PM

Using The Hat's Marathon Method there are several contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby.

Almost all of these lines are taken from last out, graded stakes performances.

Essential Quality ran 2-2-2-1 in 135.4 and from farther off the pace in an earlier race, 4-3-1-1 in 135.6 at the mile split.

Hot Rod Charlie ran 2-1-1-1 in 136.1 and earlier ran 7-32-2 in 135.6

Known Agenda has run 5-4-1-1 in 136.3

Rock Your World has run 1-1-1-1 in 136.1

Medina Spirit has run 3-3-1-1 in 136.1

Midnight Bourbon has run 2-2-2-2 in 136.1

Highly Motivated has run 1-1-1-2 in 135.4

Soup and Sandwich has run 1-1-2-2 in 136.3

That is eight candidates that can run on or near the lead at the mile mark and finish decently.

Recall from previous years that Marathon races (10 or more furlongs, usually) are won by horses on or close to the lead at the mile mark very often. Page back to previous year's info to see how many winners DIDNT come from that close up. You will be amazed.

04-24-2021, 12:02 PM	#1
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,491	The Derby could be very contentious this year Using The Hat's Marathon Method there are several contenders in this year's Kentucky Derby. Almost all of these lines are taken from last out, graded stakes performances. Essential Quality ran 2-2-2-1 in 135.4 and from farther off the pace in an earlier race, 4-3-1-1 in 135.6 at the mile split. Hot Rod Charlie ran 2-1-1-1 in 136.1 and earlier ran 7-32-2 in 135.6 Known Agenda has run 5-4-1-1 in 136.3 Rock Your World has run 1-1-1-1 in 136.1 Medina Spirit has run 3-3-1-1 in 136.1 Midnight Bourbon has run 2-2-2-2 in 136.1 Highly Motivated has run 1-1-1-2 in 135.4 Soup and Sandwich has run 1-1-2-2 in 136.3 That is eight candidates that can run on or near the lead at the mile mark and finish decently. Recall from previous years that Marathon races (10 or more furlongs, usually) are won by horses on or close to the lead at the mile mark very often. Page back to previous year's info to see how many winners DIDNT come from that close up. You will be amazed.