Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1
Since pacelines are of primary importance here are some other things I do. First I use the BRIS pps as my primary handicapping tool. They just contain more information then TM pps. After I note the paceline the program has chosen[and I left stand] I go to the Bris pps for confirmation. I do not use lifetime best races for horses 5 & up. I also check to see if the line is out of line with what the horse usually runs. For example lets' say that the line was chosen and has a Bris speed ratting of 89. I check the rest of the lines and see it has never more than 80 in the other races I won't use that line. My cut off is 5 pts so if it has 84 or 85 showing in the pps then I may use the 89. I also check for sealed track lines which I won't use if at all possible. There are times when fast tracks are sealed when bad weather is anticipated that day. Hope that clears my paceline selections.
Tim
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Tim,
Thanks Tim, I was wondering about some of those aberrant speed ratings and how to handle them.
Where do you stand on improvements made by inexperienced horses? Do you have a limit on significant SR advances (this is, more than 5 pts) for horses like young horses learning how to run? Is there a number great than the previous PPs that makes you nervous to use?
In horses coming back after layoffs, especially if the first one or two races are dull SR-wise from previous races, do you look at previous layoffs if they had any to see if a pattern of improvement occurs after ___ races?
Have any qualms about using a first off a layoff if it matches the previous best? Do you consider that if a first after layoff races matches the previous range of best, do you look for improvement from that race or just use it as a good representation.