Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Turbulator · 10-30-2006, 12:01 AM

I looked at this race a little bit differently. The five got a nice easy lead last time out with no apparent pressure and still spit it out. So I didn't like him to wire this field. If he couldn't wire it last time with no pressure, why would today be any different? I didn't see the four as a fast enough horse to bother the five on the front end. I made the four a presser not an early. I felt the five would run the same type of race as last time getting out all by himself.

I liked the one obviously, but I didn't want to make him my choice for no other reason than only 12% of tandem winners repeat. 12% is about 7.5 to one, and he was nowhere near that. In other words he was very vulnerable and not a good enough price, but I didn't see how I could throw him out.

That left the 3,6 and 7. The 3 got beat by too many lengths in the tandem leaving the 6 and 7. I just couldn't seperate the 1, 6 and 7, although I liked the 7 a "little bit" better than the six because he ran closer to the pace, as Richie stated.

In the end I was just too confused to bet.

Two questions for Richie and others.

1. Why do you think the four will go with the five? Why do you call the four an early horse? He doesn't usually get the lead and the five looks to be just enough faster to shake him off. Pressers don't normally set the pace, but rather follow the pace setters. Unless you think he is just going to push the five faster than normal. I just don't see it this way.

2. Since in your analysis you seem to have it narrowed down to two horses, why not bet them both to win if they are both over 5/2? I know you're only betting one horse now if you're getting 3/2 or better, but is there anything wrong with dutching as long as both horses are 5/2 or higher? Isn't it appx. the same thing?

Thanks,

Steve

PS If Jim would care to say something about this race, I'd love to hear his analysis. I'll wait until after he comments to put up the result chart.

10-30-2006, 12:01 AM	#16
Turbulator Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 467	I looked at this race a little bit differently. The five got a nice easy lead last time out with no apparent pressure and still spit it out. So I didn't like him to wire this field. If he couldn't wire it last time with no pressure, why would today be any different? I didn't see the four as a fast enough horse to bother the five on the front end. I made the four a presser not an early. I felt the five would run the same type of race as last time getting out all by himself. I liked the one obviously, but I didn't want to make him my choice for no other reason than only 12% of tandem winners repeat. 12% is about 7.5 to one, and he was nowhere near that. In other words he was very vulnerable and not a good enough price, but I didn't see how I could throw him out. That left the 3,6 and 7. The 3 got beat by too many lengths in the tandem leaving the 6 and 7. I just couldn't seperate the 1, 6 and 7, although I liked the 7 a "little bit" better than the six because he ran closer to the pace, as Richie stated. In the end I was just too confused to bet. Two questions for Richie and others. 1. Why do you think the four will go with the five? Why do you call the four an early horse? He doesn't usually get the lead and the five looks to be just enough faster to shake him off. Pressers don't normally set the pace, but rather follow the pace setters. Unless you think he is just going to push the five faster than normal. I just don't see it this way. 2. Since in your analysis you seem to have it narrowed down to two horses, why not bet them both to win if they are both over 5/2? I know you're only betting one horse now if you're getting 3/2 or better, but is there anything wrong with dutching as long as both horses are 5/2 or higher? Isn't it appx. the same thing? Thanks, Steve PS If Jim would care to say something about this race, I'd love to hear his analysis. I'll wait until after he comments to put up the result chart.