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kev:
One size here doesn't fit all. In your example 6.5 F race, I would be extremely interested in how it handled the route races on the same surface, if it handles it well it tells me the surface is not a problem. As far as distance it also depends on how it handled those internal fractions of those route races.
I find distance is more important than surface, I may use the 6F turf or the dirt route, that's not a cop out. It really depends on what I'm seeing and without an actual visual I can't answer your question. If you put it up I'll do that . Of course someone else may disagree.
Horses run slower in route races so looking for a competitive internal time of other sprinters in the race is not the answer. An internal time in a route race must be adjusted.
Another question; is the horse even a contender?
Because of how races are written etc., horses don't always fit into a one rule or one guideline fits all. Jimmy "The Hat" Bradshaw said; "You must you what's there."
Mitch44
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