Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 07-03-2020, 02:06 PM

Good stuff Richard.

There is no doubt that win betting has become much harder. The advent of computers has also been a huge contributing factor. There also hasn't been much innovation in the field of handicapping lately, most of it is just massaged in a different way or weighting of importance etc.

In racing the cream comes to the top or water seeks its own level. With that in mind there are more cheap horses or lower class horses than better or Graded horses. These cheaper horses tend to be less form full and more inconsistent. I'd say look to the lower class races on the card barring MSW. They'll have fuller fields and better prices. While a Grade 1 can have a full field normally there are only 25% real contenders or 3 horses. Ditto for other race classes. The best races for prices are full fields that are competitive with multiple true contenders. Smaller tracks can produce good prices with fuller fields. Even so they have their own hierarchy of classes and can also produce favorites but generally are more productive.In real competitive fields( 4 or 5 true contenders) it pays to take the longer priced contenders as the public tend to be wrong in those situations.

The use of something different from the masses will get better prices. In RDSS tools such as % Med., concepts such as the Counter Energy horse. While many today are using pace few are using advanced concepts of pace such as compounding of Fractions and Sartin's later advancements. They tend to be very generic in their approach and prefer factors such as Phase 1 because they can comprehend it. Well everyone is using that and their overly bet down and no longer profitable. The masses shy away from anything that's hard to understand or too complicated, especially if it involves work. The Sartin concept as a whole is a difficult discipline which doesn't come easy or overnight, although its never been easier.

I think angles are place for great opportunity. They require search, patience and discipline but employed properly are still very profitable. Sometimes form isn't hidden and is right before your eyes for good prices. They could be repeaters or trainers moves etc. Risk reward must always be evaluated.

Good capping,

Mitch44

07-03-2020, 02:06 PM	#3
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,841	Good stuff Richard. There is no doubt that win betting has become much harder. The advent of computers has also been a huge contributing factor. There also hasn't been much innovation in the field of handicapping lately, most of it is just massaged in a different way or weighting of importance etc. In racing the cream comes to the top or water seeks its own level. With that in mind there are more cheap horses or lower class horses than better or Graded horses. These cheaper horses tend to be less form full and more inconsistent. I'd say look to the lower class races on the card barring MSW. They'll have fuller fields and better prices. While a Grade 1 can have a full field normally there are only 25% real contenders or 3 horses. Ditto for other race classes. The best races for prices are full fields that are competitive with multiple true contenders. Smaller tracks can produce good prices with fuller fields. Even so they have their own hierarchy of classes and can also produce favorites but generally are more productive.In real competitive fields( 4 or 5 true contenders) it pays to take the longer priced contenders as the public tend to be wrong in those situations. The use of something different from the masses will get better prices. In RDSS tools such as % Med., concepts such as the Counter Energy horse. While many today are using pace few are using advanced concepts of pace such as compounding of Fractions and Sartin's later advancements. They tend to be very generic in their approach and prefer factors such as Phase 1 because they can comprehend it. Well everyone is using that and their overly bet down and no longer profitable. The masses shy away from anything that's hard to understand or too complicated, especially if it involves work. The Sartin concept as a whole is a difficult discipline which doesn't come easy or overnight, although its never been easier. I think angles are place for great opportunity. They require search, patience and discipline but employed properly are still very profitable. Sometimes form isn't hidden and is right before your eyes for good prices. They could be repeaters or trainers moves etc. Risk reward must always be evaluated. Good capping, Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-03-2020 at 02:19 PM.