Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mitch44 · 04-03-2020, 03:18 PM

Bill your free to believe whatever you wish to along with anybody else. Your right Bill I don't have a 1,000 race study to offer up to you. My experience comes after many years of racing, study,experience, research etc. and proven data research to find factors that win. I can play any race with those factors or any track with those factors . They are interchangeable. Once I find a fact from back testing or research I no longer need it nor do I keep the research material. Those that don't believe it are the ones that need it or need to confirm the fact. Some keep rolling data research only to find a small difference, who cares? The fact remains that it still is profitable and advantageous etc.

Your 1,000 race study is also a fallacy as 1,000 races aren't needed to find a fact. Far too many are hung up on large data bases which to me are a waste of time. Current information is far more valuable that something that happened last year or a 1,000 races ago. Pars are a perfect example of this, immediacy is far more important, track profiles are another and not needed. Data that is forever changing is not preferred data.

I don't consider myself an expert on data collection but common sense prevails and many collect data in a manner that are extremely flawed,no different than s-hit in and s-it out.

I could also be a wise ass and say your 1,000 race study is no good and 2,000 are needed to bring the error rate down under ??? because I did 2,000 and its more specific. I can find out in 21 races about something that will be very similar or an insignificant difference in 100 races . If I find a fact that is 65% and in 100 races and its 65.50 in 100 or 66.10 in 1,000 races I could care less as its a valuable percentage. Hey where does one draw the line? Hell I guess someone has to have 5,000 to get their confidence level up. I'm not into your data base is bigger than mine. Whoopie due!! I don't play those games and I'm definitely not impressed.

In fact on this site I don't know of one winner that is a one horse better. I've seen many try and fail. That macho thing grabs hold of them but they fail to succeed. At one time a person that could pick 33% winners with one horse was considered an expert in this field. With todays low paying horses and races I doubt a 33% winner can show a profit.

Mitch44

04-03-2020, 03:18 PM	#10
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,706	Bill your free to believe whatever you wish to along with anybody else. Your right Bill I don't have a 1,000 race study to offer up to you. My experience comes after many years of racing, study,experience, research etc. and proven data research to find factors that win. I can play any race with those factors or any track with those factors . They are interchangeable. Once I find a fact from back testing or research I no longer need it nor do I keep the research material. Those that don't believe it are the ones that need it or need to confirm the fact. Some keep rolling data research only to find a small difference, who cares? The fact remains that it still is profitable and advantageous etc. Your 1,000 race study is also a fallacy as 1,000 races aren't needed to find a fact. Far too many are hung up on large data bases which to me are a waste of time. Current information is far more valuable that something that happened last year or a 1,000 races ago. Pars are a perfect example of this, immediacy is far more important, track profiles are another and not needed. Data that is forever changing is not preferred data. I don't consider myself an expert on data collection but common sense prevails and many collect data in a manner that are extremely flawed,no different than s-hit in and s-it out. I could also be a wise ass and say your 1,000 race study is no good and 2,000 are needed to bring the error rate down under ??? because I did 2,000 and its more specific. I can find out in 21 races about something that will be very similar or an insignificant difference in 100 races . If I find a fact that is 65% and in 100 races and its 65.50 in 100 or 66.10 in 1,000 races I could care less as its a valuable percentage. Hey where does one draw the line? Hell I guess someone has to have 5,000 to get their confidence level up. I'm not into your data base is bigger than mine. Whoopie due!! I don't play those games and I'm definitely not impressed. In fact on this site I don't know of one winner that is a one horse better. I've seen many try and fail. That macho thing grabs hold of them but they fail to succeed. At one time a person that could pick 33% winners with one horse was considered an expert in this field. With todays low paying horses and races I doubt a 33% winner can show a profit. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-03-2020 at 03:23 PM.