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FU # 44:
pg.19 "In our more advanced programs we altered the value of a beaten length to one foot per length per 1/16th of a mile of fractional distance. This produced figures that proved to be more predictive than the straight 10 feet equations." 10 feet was originally used to make the math simple. With the advent of computers in the early 90's or so it made the math easier and more precise than original formulas. Actual ground covered or a length is really determined by time,distance and varies depending on the distance being measured and how fast that distanced is covered. Anyone making their own charts easily gets this otherwise they say, WHAT!!
Illustration: we will use the distance of 1/4 mile or 2 Furlongs which is 1,320 feet divided by time 22 seconds = 60.00 per second-10 ft. or minus 1 length =1310 ft. / 22=59.54( difference = 0.46)
at 23 seconds /1320 = 57.37 minus 1 lg. is 1310 /23 =56.95 (difference of 0.44
at 24 seconds / 1320= 55.00 minus 1 lg. is 1310 / 24 = 54.58 (difference 0f 0.42)
As you can see the difference or value of one length varies by the speed or time it takes the horse to cover the distance 0.46,0.44 & 0.42 Throw in the difference distances being measured especially in 3rd Fractions and differences become even greater. His example on pg. 19 was a difference of 1 1/3 length. How many races have you seen that the winner won by that or less? While in any one increment the amount can be small as in his or this example, but over the course of the race they add up enough to mean many unnecessary losses.
Additionally using tenths instead of 5ths prove to be more productive for winners or greater accuracy.Nowadays races are timed in hundreds but past performances still are displayed in 5th. Those making their own figures from results charts have an edge here.
Today charts are no longer made by a human making a determination of the beaten lengths for each horse by eyeball as in the days of old. A wide angle lens photo is taken of the stretch at the finish of every race and each horse is measured with a ruler device for greater accuracy.
pg. 19 "It was the compounding of F-P-S velocity as FACTORS that sent us into the future." When they went from just SC & 3rd FR to 3 Fractions it allowed for the development of compounding or in other words combining those Fractions into Factors that previously didn't exist. Thus the 7 PRIMARY FACTORS were born. They lessen the effect of a variant,provided more precise and accurate measurements. Without all this there would be no BLBL or even V/DC. While much of his earlier stuff was stolen and put out to the masses these two factors remain out of the public domain because their not understood and he also disguised some of their formulas'.
pg. 20 & 21 POR & POH into power ratings and pace ratings are pretty straight forward as explained. Tedious and mistake prone by hand and perhaps able to do a race a day to get one of these $5.20 favorites.The coming of the computer age allowed all that math and advancement. All done by a computer extremely very fast and mistake free behind the scene's.
Mitch44
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