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Some Thoughts for 2019
Some Thoughts for 2019:
Memorize this formula: EV = (Odds +1) x (Probability of Winning), if your bet or group bet does not create an EV greater than 1.0, you won't win
Those who complain how hard it is to estimate the probability of winning do not realize that we are playing a gambling game of decision making under uncertainty, and those who dominate the betting pools are spending the time and effort to make these estimates
In Sports Betting, Suckers/Squares bet teams, while Sharps/Pros bet numbers
Similarly, in Horse Betting, Suckers/Squares bet horses, while Sharps/Pros bet Odds
Never bet a horse to win going off at less than even money: there are few, if any, horses that have a greater than 50% chance of winning any race
Never spend more than 7 minutes on your race and bet analysis: the breakdown should be no more than 2 minutes for race analysis (contenders, pace lines, analysis of favorites) and no more than 5 minutes to construct a wager. If you are using a computer program, Trust The Machine. Remember, those who dominate the betting pools are trusting their machine and probably using an algo to make the bets.
If you end up looking to bet a horse to win whose odds are 7/2 or lower, make sure you can toss at least one horse to win whose win odds are 3-1 or lower to give you a chance at +EV
If your method selects win contenders, your minimum win odds requirement is your number of contenders -- that is, if you have 3 win contenders your minimum win odds to make a win bet is 3-1, etc.
If your method does not separate win contenders, you minimum win odds requirement is the number of horses in the race divided by 2 -- that is, 8 horses then minimum win odds is 4-1, etc.
Some of this may seem harsh, but I guarantee that if you do not adhere to these betting principles you will not win. The rest is up to you.
Richard
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