So, I'm looking at the Jim Dandy (10th Race). As I don't have access to track or class variants, I need to give my weight to other factors. Please be sure to tell me what I may have overlooked.
This is a G2 Stakes of 9 fur, 600k, 3yo, 5 starters.
Running Style:
#1 , #3, and #4 are the early speed horses. However, #4 is only an E3 to the other two, and was beaten by #1 in a previous race (Tandems). #2 and #5 are both P3s. One might win only if there is a three way speed duel to exhaust the leading horses.
Jockeys:
#1, 3, and 4 are all moving up, #2 and 5 are no change. No Change is neither positive nor negative. Irad Ortiz Jr, riding #3, has the highest in starts, win% and top 3%. J R Velazquez, riding #5, matches Irad in win%, and earns 23k to Irad's 14k, but has half as many races to his credit. Jose Ortiz, riding #1, has the least amount in terms of win% and top 3% but is second to Velazquez in per start$ and almost equal to Irad in total earnings. In fact, the Ortiz duo are both the top earners. FYI, these conclusions are based on the earnings per year at Equibase, not the figures in the PP for this meet. This seems to suggest #1, #3, and #5.
The Jockey/Trainer angle is also a 365 statistic:
#1 has the highest ROI and has the second highest win%, following #5. #1 over #5.
Trainers:
Todd Fletcher, trainer of #5, came out tops in the categories of shipper, graded stakes, routes, and dirt starts. Steven Asmussen, trainer of both #2, and #3, came out second in the same categories. However, #3 has one strike as switching from turf to dirt, and is a second start off a layoff. #2 and #4 are both 46-90 days away. Seems to suggest #5, while #2, #3, and #4 all have a strike against them.
Class:
#1, and #3 are moving up in class, while the rest of the field is moving down. All have had at least one G2 race. #1 ‘s most recent race was for a slightly lower purse (500K to today’s 600k), and #2, #4, and #5 are all coming down from G1 mil+ races, While #3 is technically stepping up in class, in his previous race he finished 21.5 lengths behind the leader in a 2mil G2. This seems to suggest #1 has the edge.
Workouts:
Most of this field worked out most recently at 4 fur. The average of the 2nd call in the pps was 47.69 FPS. #3 has the fastest final time by more than 15 seconds or more over the other four. However, #1 ‘s workout 8 days ago was 3 seconds faster than #3 at the same distance, five days ago. #4, and #5 ran faster at the 4 fur post and a furlong farther than the others. All told, #3 had the slowest time for the same distance, 4 fur. #2, and #3 both worked out on the training track, the others on the main track. #3 had three workouts in the past months but two were on turf. #1 had two workouts on dirt. Seems to suggest #1
In conclusion:
Running Style: #1
Jockey: #1
Jockey/Trainer: #1
Trainer: #1
Class: #1
Workouts: #1
Now lets see how this one turns out
Bill: I'm also keeping my bets real small. And I only boost my account once a week for $20.