Something that was
NOT pointed out in Bill Lyster’s post#4 of this thread was his final point.
“By the way, in all races at DMR the average number of contenders was 3.67!”
Let me illustrate what that means. First all of, it seems to be common practice that EVERY RACE must have 5 contenders,
which is absolutely absurd. There are
NOT 5 legitimate contenders in every race. The average field size is 8 horses. 5 Contenders equals 62.5% of the field. And then the talk is about how many winners are in the “top 4”. Well, I hope there are a significant number since you have 62.5% whittled down to 50%.
So, where everybody else is starting with 62.5% of the field, Bill Lyster, using my guidelines, was starting with an average of 45.8% of the field.
Now let’s look a little closer at what that starting number of contenders looks like in practice.
Here is a link to a day at PARX.
I encourage everyone to read what I wrote before starting the races. It starts on PAGE #22.
http://www.sartinmethodology.com/lib....Selection.pdf
Let me explain what you will see,
IF you look for it.
First, the contenders won 100% of the races. (9 for 9)
Next, here is the number of contenders in each race and the winning mutual.
Race 1 – 3 contenders, winner paid $4.60
Race 2 – 2 contenders, winner paid $4.00
Race 3 – 5 contenders, winner paid $5.20
Race 4 – 4 contenders, winner paid $39.60
Race 5 – 3 contenders, winner paid $7.00
Race 6 – 2 contenders, winner paid $10.20
Race 7 – 4 contenders, winner paid $27.60
Race 8 – 6 contenders, winner paid $5.20
Race 9 – 3 contenders, winner paid $6.60
More than half of the races had just 2 or 3 contenders.
Only 2 races had more than 4 contenders.
On this day there were a total of just 32 contenders. That is an average of 3.55 contenders per race, which is very close to the 3.67 average number of contenders Bill Lyster showed for the meet at DMR.
Now, compare this to what appears to be the normal for players today. They would have had a total of 45 contenders, 5 per race.