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Long layoffs are a giant bugaboo IMO. Certain trainers are better in prepping a horse to fire off extended inactivity than others. However, none of it matters if they don't have the horse. A Linda Rice 3yo runner came back the other day at the Big A off a May layoff vs. a suspect field and won by daylight - at 5/2 odds in a 5 horse field nonetheless. The reliability of an older line is questionable when it comes to measuring ability of a comeback runner. I see why some here won't consider such lines. However, a 5% clip equates to natural odds of roughly 19-1. Tells me that one should demand an aggressive premium if they insist on taking lines off comebackers coming back from a long absence. However, if you choose to play recency and ignore the long layoff types, it simplifies the decision making prices that much more.
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