The “LAST” technique, as it was called above, is not a technique of FTL’s making. It is Dr. Howard Sartin’s original guidelines. FTL just added a ML elimination and a DAYS OFF elimination. The thing about the original guidelines is that they were never broken, so why fix them?
As it turns out someone just sent me a screen shot from RDSS. As you can see, it is a recent race from DMR on 11.2.17. You will notice there are only two contenders and the last line was used on both. Now I don’t know about anyone else, but a $75.80 winner right off the last line will always be alright as far as I am concerned.
If I posted 1,000 races showing very large mutuals from winners where the last line was the line used, there would still be those who would decry its’ worthiness. I find it amazing.
I want to make this as clear as I can. The original line selection guidelines
DID NOT SAY “always use the last line no matter what”.
THAT IS A MYTH.
Let me put what it said in its’ proper context.
“AS LONG AS THE LAST LINE IS A “+” OR A “(+)” RACE... USE IT. IF IT IS NOT A “+” OR “(+)” AND THERE IS A LEGITIMATE EXCUSE FOR THE POOR RACE, THEN GO BACK ONE LINE AND START OVER AGAIN.”
If you are wondering what a “legitimate excuse” is, things such as wrong distance, wrong surface, class too high (to include wrong or too high condition) are among the most common legitimate excuses.
Now let me show you something Doc wrote after he switched to “best of last three distance/surface”.
Let me repeat that.
“THEY FAIL TO NOTE THE LINES USED FOR ALL CONTENDERS AND HOW TRULY RARE IT IS WHEN WE WENT BACK MORE THAN 3 LINES.”
For some reason, people fail to notice that using the original guidelines you will also get back to line 2 or line 3.
I will never understand the obsession with “opening up” the PP’s. The further back you go for a line the less reliable it is today.
In addition, how “consistent” will your line selection be when you are hunting all over the place for a line?
Will you follow the very same procedure in the next race you look at?
All I'll say is, choose the path you feel is best for you.