Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1
Nice post Tim. Love the baseball analogy. Anyone who has spoken to or listen to Tom Brohamer will hear him talking about playing the percentages. I do it all the time knowing that I will be right 8 or 9 times out 10 such as not using a lifetime best race by a horse 5 or older. When I get bit I just move on and continue to do the same thing the next time. We must always be consistent in our approach win or lose.
Tim G
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The tight rope IMO is balancing consistency with flexibility. If your consistent approach looks like it will have problems with a particular race, you have the option to pass. The best money managers do this frequently. It also goes a long way in mitigating a losing streak, because you're demanding a premium situation to play and not one where the matchups are difficult to verbalize with any level of confidence. If your consistent approach basically has the odds-on favorite dominating the matchup, you would either pass the race, or find a way to leverage the situation, perhaps in the exacta or DD pools to turn that odds-on into say a 4-1 proposition. If your consistent approach gives you a top tier horse that runs counter to the current track bias based on a profile or visual observation, do you stick with and live/die by your numbers - bias be damned? Or do you trust your eyes/profile and mentally upgrade the 2nd/3rd tier horse(s) fitting the profile and wager accordingly?
These are all questions that we have to answer for ourselves at any given point in time playing this great game. Once we answer them enough times, we should have a clear answer and can use that knowledge to tackle any situation we may encounter.