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see if this can help you......"Say you have a sample of 100 races. If the mutuel prices are sorted from lowest to highest, the lowest may be 2.20 and the highest
89.00. The purpose of modeling is predicting the future.
That purpose can best be fulfilled by using an approximation that is far more likely to be repeated
than simple averaging of the 100 mutuel prices would indicate.
Using the list of sorted mutuel prices, pick the 25th from the bottom and the 25th from the top.
Those values may be 8.00 and 4.00. Add to get 12.00. Divide by 2 to get 6.00--which is an accurate
predictive value of what future average prices will be.
Multiply the 6.00 by 1.5 to get 9.00. Set that as a default value to replace
any mutuel price greater than that amount and go through the list of mutuel prices again using:
If (mutuel price) > 9.00 then (mutuel price) = 9.00
Use the new cleaned data to calculate an ROI.
If it is positive, you may have something that can usefully be applied to future races.
Not guaranteed, but a much more dependable model than using dirty data...."
BTW, the MIQR is used routinely in predictive computer modeling and simulations. It is not some personal quirk of mine, good luck.
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