Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 03-29-2017, 05:18 PM

Mick,
One last word, as I believe this is very important when looking at wagering on Thoroughbred Horse races. Someone along the line came up with the idea that you can accumulated races in a database and draw meaningful information from them. However, each race in an independent event, just like a coin flip. While they are not random events, identifying the causation and the effect is the difficult task. These are living breathing beings that are influenced by weather, surface speed, the wishes of their connections and the trips they experience running around the track. We can attempt to quantify these factors as it relates to the internal fractions, final time and the horse's exhibited behaviors in his past performances, but at best they are crude estimates.
We must remember that horses are creatures of habit. A visual Running Style is an expression of that habit. When a horse is placed in a race in which the early pace is within his ability he will run similarly. When placed against superior faster animals his behavior will be much different. If you accept the Running Style concept as valid then it follows that there are other aspects of his behavior that note his individuality. Need-to-lead characteristics, competitiveness or fighting characteristics, the ability to pass other horses and so forth. As well, a horse has to have enough work to attain a condition of racing fitness. Some combination of workouts and racing can bring a horse to his peak of conditioning without necessarily stacking a bunch of wins or close finishes in his recent races. If you look at Tam's first race today that was posted on this board, the winner came from the Fastest Pace Last Race and battled through 1/2 mile within a head of the leader before fading to last beaten 13 lengths in a 7f race at 43/1. Jim Bradshaw discussed Hidden Early and a paceline with the first two calls of 2nd-hd - 2nd-hd as an absolute assurance that a horse is approaching his peak condition. Today on a two level drop and 1f cutback he wins at 8/1. No amount of database work or statistical evaluation is going to put you on that horse. We can't really know beforehand how much energy it took out of the horse to battle for the lead for 1/2 mile. That is not his Running Style he has won twice as an SP and once as a P. Today he reverted back to his normal Running style and won fairly comfortably. What it does tell you, thank you Jim Bradshaw is that the horse is peaking and back in 17 days is sound down two levels in Claiming price cutting back, he is placed for action.
Sorry for my long winded response but we as humans want to create order out of the chaos that is horse racing and in most cases that is accumulating numbers and deriving factor lists that give us a sense of confidence in wagering our money. This ignores the information that is there for us to consider if we look beyond the numbers and recognize the general talent and capabilities of the animal and his fitness compared to what he will face today. Each race is a different combination of horses and their cumulative energies will determine who will prevail today.

03-29-2017, 05:18 PM	#17
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Quantitative Analysis Mick, One last word, as I believe this is very important when looking at wagering on Thoroughbred Horse races. Someone along the line came up with the idea that you can accumulated races in a database and draw meaningful information from them. However, each race in an independent event, just like a coin flip. While they are not random events, identifying the causation and the effect is the difficult task. These are living breathing beings that are influenced by weather, surface speed, the wishes of their connections and the trips they experience running around the track. We can attempt to quantify these factors as it relates to the internal fractions, final time and the horse's exhibited behaviors in his past performances, but at best they are crude estimates. We must remember that horses are creatures of habit. A visual Running Style is an expression of that habit. When a horse is placed in a race in which the early pace is within his ability he will run similarly. When placed against superior faster animals his behavior will be much different. If you accept the Running Style concept as valid then it follows that there are other aspects of his behavior that note his individuality. Need-to-lead characteristics, competitiveness or fighting characteristics, the ability to pass other horses and so forth. As well, a horse has to have enough work to attain a condition of racing fitness. Some combination of workouts and racing can bring a horse to his peak of conditioning without necessarily stacking a bunch of wins or close finishes in his recent races. If you look at Tam's first race today that was posted on this board, the winner came from the Fastest Pace Last Race and battled through 1/2 mile within a head of the leader before fading to last beaten 13 lengths in a 7f race at 43/1. Jim Bradshaw discussed Hidden Early and a paceline with the first two calls of 2nd-hd - 2nd-hd as an absolute assurance that a horse is approaching his peak condition. Today on a two level drop and 1f cutback he wins at 8/1. No amount of database work or statistical evaluation is going to put you on that horse. We can't really know beforehand how much energy it took out of the horse to battle for the lead for 1/2 mile. That is not his Running Style he has won twice as an SP and once as a P. Today he reverted back to his normal Running style and won fairly comfortably. What it does tell you, thank you Jim Bradshaw is that the horse is peaking and back in 17 days is sound down two levels in Claiming price cutting back, he is placed for action. Sorry for my long winded response but we as humans want to create order out of the chaos that is horse racing and in most cases that is accumulating numbers and deriving factor lists that give us a sense of confidence in wagering our money. This ignores the information that is there for us to consider if we look beyond the numbers and recognize the general talent and capabilities of the animal and his fitness compared to what he will face today. Each race is a different combination of horses and their cumulative energies will determine who will prevail today.