Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 03-29-2017, 02:10 PM

Mick,
I don't believe it is possible to use and automated paceline selection routine in handicapping a race and make any serious money, or any money really unless you are very, very selective in the races you play. But that's just my opinion. Our wagering here in the US is Para Mutuel and we are competing against the best handicappers in the world. Large syndicates spend more money on software development than we pay annually for our home mortgage. Again my belief is that you have to operate outside the mainstream, in other words, use a different strategy, one that is not reliant on regressing of public factors. The obsession with recent good races insures that any horse that exhibits a speed or pace advantage will be hammered at the windows.
I have spent the last 4 years studying the Hat Check blog and have had the good fortune to exchange emails with Richie P concerning Match Up concepts. One of the things that impressed me most about Jim Bradshaw's work was his notion of comparing horses. Jim's belief was that he was more interested in a horse's best effort than his last one. Think about it. I want to know the fastest pace this horse ever competed against and won or finished up close. If you compare horses this way you know who is, was, the most talented horse entered in today's race. In other words, if he runs that race today, he wins. Now if that paceline is way down at the bottom of his pps, you have a dilemma. What is this horse now?
Is it not a true statement that today's winner will have had to compete successfully against the projected 1st fraction velocity? You may have horses that can go 21.8 but your automated paceline selection routine picks lines based upon Total Energy and the line picked for some horses could be 22.4, 23.2 or 24 seconds. A horse that can run well and finish against a 24 second 1st fraction is going to be way back today. If he attempts to run faster earlier chances are that this exertion will nullify and late gain. At the 2nd call this horse won't be anywhere near contention. So to handicap this way defies all laws of physics. Fast horses win races. Fast horses that run unchallenged on the lead win alot of races. A thorough examination of the horse's pps will tell you just about everything you need to know about a horse.
If you did nothing more than find the horse in today's race that runs Early and you expect to get the lead out of the gate. Then using that time as translated to fps velocity on the Velocity-POR screen, find the lines for all the other horses that are equal or similar. Those will be your contenders. If a horse has never shown that he can finish against that 1st fraction velocity and you do not perceive a pace duel up front then that horse is not a contender. Do not use lines on S horses that ran against faster paces because if they do not get that same early pace they will not gain the ground late. Track this method! Find out when a deep paceline is not usable today. Lastly,
"THE Hat" gave 3 questions you must answer if you choose a deep paceline: 1) Is the horse still a horse? 2) Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3) If he is Early can he still get on top of his fractions?
Handicapping the ponies can be a very enjoying hobby. It can be a diversion from the rigors of life. But the expectations of this type of involvement should be minimizing the amount of money you lose. Like going to Las Vegas with a set amount of money you can lose. Good Luck and have some fun!!

03-29-2017, 02:10 PM	#15
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	Enjoy the races... Mick, I don't believe it is possible to use and automated paceline selection routine in handicapping a race and make any serious money, or any money really unless you are very, very selective in the races you play. But that's just my opinion. Our wagering here in the US is Para Mutuel and we are competing against the best handicappers in the world. Large syndicates spend more money on software development than we pay annually for our home mortgage. Again my belief is that you have to operate outside the mainstream, in other words, use a different strategy, one that is not reliant on regressing of public factors. The obsession with recent good races insures that any horse that exhibits a speed or pace advantage will be hammered at the windows. I have spent the last 4 years studying the Hat Check blog and have had the good fortune to exchange emails with Richie P concerning Match Up concepts. One of the things that impressed me most about Jim Bradshaw's work was his notion of comparing horses. Jim's belief was that he was more interested in a horse's best effort than his last one. Think about it. I want to know the fastest pace this horse ever competed against and won or finished up close. If you compare horses this way you know who is, was, the most talented horse entered in today's race. In other words, if he runs that race today, he wins. Now if that paceline is way down at the bottom of his pps, you have a dilemma. What is this horse now? Is it not a true statement that today's winner will have had to compete successfully against the projected 1st fraction velocity? You may have horses that can go 21.8 but your automated paceline selection routine picks lines based upon Total Energy and the line picked for some horses could be 22.4, 23.2 or 24 seconds. A horse that can run well and finish against a 24 second 1st fraction is going to be way back today. If he attempts to run faster earlier chances are that this exertion will nullify and late gain. At the 2nd call this horse won't be anywhere near contention. So to handicap this way defies all laws of physics. Fast horses win races. Fast horses that run unchallenged on the lead win alot of races. A thorough examination of the horse's pps will tell you just about everything you need to know about a horse. If you did nothing more than find the horse in today's race that runs Early and you expect to get the lead out of the gate. Then using that time as translated to fps velocity on the Velocity-POR screen, find the lines for all the other horses that are equal or similar. Those will be your contenders. If a horse has never shown that he can finish against that 1st fraction velocity and you do not perceive a pace duel up front then that horse is not a contender. Do not use lines on S horses that ran against faster paces because if they do not get that same early pace they will not gain the ground late. Track this method! Find out when a deep paceline is not usable today. Lastly, "THE Hat" gave 3 questions you must answer if you choose a deep paceline: 1) Is the horse still a horse? 2) Has he changed his running style and become a slow horse? 3) If he is Early can he still get on top of his fractions? Handicapping the ponies can be a very enjoying hobby. It can be a diversion from the rigors of life. But the expectations of this type of involvement should be minimizing the amount of money you lose. Like going to Las Vegas with a set amount of money you can lose. Good Luck and have some fun!!