Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - Reflecting on my month with the Methodology

Jeebs · 03-27-2017, 01:48 PM

Wednesday 3/22 would be a pretty even day. 4 races bet. A couple of Win bets at Tampa and Gulfstream came through in my favor to turn the tables somewhat. Alas, it was a $3.50 day to the good.

Thursday, I decided an off day was needed. I clearly had hit skids. I also withdrew from NHPlay and back into Twinspires as the new AmWager interface kept having issues. I'm clearly more comfortable with Twinspires. I built an Excel dutching calculator for my usage to make the Dutch decisions and ROI. Plus, Oaklawn and Louisiana tracks not available on AmWager.

Friday, back in action. 7 races from Gulfstream, Tampa and Oaklawn. Despite some timely win dutches at Tampa, the Tampa portion was not profitable. Unfortunately, those "timely" wins would be the only cashes anywhere on this day. A $29.60 loss. The account is hemmoraging now.

Saturday saw action all over. Multi-tracking from Dubai (where a Place wager on Arrogate proved to be marginally profitable), Gulfstream, Tampa, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Turfway and Turf Paradise saw me wager on 15 total races. It was an up/down day. At the end, $229 in bets saw a slight $9 loss. This would pale in comparison to Sunday.

5 tracks, Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and Sunland. 13 races bet. Early success at Oaklawn and Santa Anita was not sustainable. A win Dutch at a Tampa would net a $44.60 profit, but after missing the bell at Santa for a wager against a heavy favorite (the horse I missed the bell on romped at 3-1 odds), I literally went into destruction mode. Down to $52 and change, I did something out of character. I went "all-in" with a horse that seemed to have an edge at Sunland. Had I followed FTL's guidelines, I may have passed this race, as there were layoff types and horses stretching out with no recent two turn form. Instead, I made the push and watched as a Pletcher shipper ganged up on my horse, watched it fade and one of the Sunland locals made a late move to catch the Pletcher shipper. The 26 day ride was over.

Epilogue:
This weekend was an example of why multi-tracking is a horrible approach (for me). Trying to concentrate on multiple racetracks is tough. I tip my hat to those that can pull it off. Going through my journey, I am seeing how focusing attention on a couple of races rather than several, worked out better. I wasn't rushing my process, trying to force horses off the computer. The race was jumping out at me. This weekend was also an example of how FTL's guidelines - as conservative as they are (my opinion) - can save one from a world of hurt while multi-tracking. Yes, the occasional long layoff comebacker will win as will the occasional 20-1/30-1 ML horse. However, as his database suggests, it will narrow the scope down to the real contenders as well as point to races that should be passed. An Oaklawn race where I narrowed the field down to 5 horses, 2 were 20-1 ML. I hid a horse that appeared to have not much of an edge and kept the bombs and a horse at shorter odds. The hide won and the bomb, while thrilling me until the final 1/16th, faded. If I hide the bombers, I hit the race dutching 3 horses. These are decisions you have to live with. Of course, had the bomber wired the field, this example would be moot. Nonetheless, there is clearly validity there.

Bankroll pressure: as it was starting with $20, I was wagering too much from the outset and even when the account topped off just shy of $300, $10-20 a race was probably still too much. When things went south, $10-20 a race was definitely too much. I've said numerous times, there is a variance factor in all games of chance. Success is sustainable, but tough times are inevitable and the best players with the best discipline can ride the tough times out by cutting wagers back or taking multiple days off. The game is never ending. You can put it away and resume fresh a couple of days later.

Race selection: Mitch and others have commented on the races I pick. Granted not the best for handicapping, but with my work schedule, typically the only races available. As FTL has suggested, finding playable races takes skill. I am still learning that.

Process: My proudest takeaway. I have a structure which is dependable and consistent race to race. Again, I need to focus on working with the horses that are somewhat recent and are not huge ML, but I have faith in my process.

20-race cycles: I strayed a bit after the first one. In fact, the only reason I knew my status of the 2nd one was by going through my account summaries today. I need to chart religiously these cycles.

Modeling/Profiling: I didn't do either. Perhaps a fatal flaw hurting me. Some races would show a 3rd tier BL/BL as tops in Rx and vice-versa. I got in trouble a few times mixing usage between those tier methods. I chose to stick with BL/BL after that to keep consistent. That being said, I need to test which one works best for me and stick with it. Also, Keith is an advocate of track profiles. It can definitely help when making final decisions regarding horses ranked near the bottom or bottom tiers whether they stay or go.

I hope you enjoyed my journey. I am sure that there will be comments and suggestions. I am open to all feedback. I want to thank everyone for their feedback the past month. It is valuable and I take it to heart. This isn't the end but rather a beginning for me with the Methodology.

-Jeebs (Tim)

03-27-2017, 01:48 PM	#5
Jeebs Grade 1 Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 909	Part 4/Epilogue Wednesday 3/22 would be a pretty even day. 4 races bet. A couple of Win bets at Tampa and Gulfstream came through in my favor to turn the tables somewhat. Alas, it was a $3.50 day to the good. Thursday, I decided an off day was needed. I clearly had hit skids. I also withdrew from NHPlay and back into Twinspires as the new AmWager interface kept having issues. I'm clearly more comfortable with Twinspires. I built an Excel dutching calculator for my usage to make the Dutch decisions and ROI. Plus, Oaklawn and Louisiana tracks not available on AmWager. Friday, back in action. 7 races from Gulfstream, Tampa and Oaklawn. Despite some timely win dutches at Tampa, the Tampa portion was not profitable. Unfortunately, those "timely" wins would be the only cashes anywhere on this day. A $29.60 loss. The account is hemmoraging now. Saturday saw action all over. Multi-tracking from Dubai (where a Place wager on Arrogate proved to be marginally profitable), Gulfstream, Tampa, Oaklawn, Santa Anita, Turfway and Turf Paradise saw me wager on 15 total races. It was an up/down day. At the end, $229 in bets saw a slight $9 loss. This would pale in comparison to Sunday. 5 tracks, Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Tampa and Sunland. 13 races bet. Early success at Oaklawn and Santa Anita was not sustainable. A win Dutch at a Tampa would net a $44.60 profit, but after missing the bell at Santa for a wager against a heavy favorite (the horse I missed the bell on romped at 3-1 odds), I literally went into destruction mode. Down to $52 and change, I did something out of character. I went "all-in" with a horse that seemed to have an edge at Sunland. Had I followed FTL's guidelines, I may have passed this race, as there were layoff types and horses stretching out with no recent two turn form. Instead, I made the push and watched as a Pletcher shipper ganged up on my horse, watched it fade and one of the Sunland locals made a late move to catch the Pletcher shipper. The 26 day ride was over. Epilogue: This weekend was an example of why multi-tracking is a horrible approach (for me). Trying to concentrate on multiple racetracks is tough. I tip my hat to those that can pull it off. Going through my journey, I am seeing how focusing attention on a couple of races rather than several, worked out better. I wasn't rushing my process, trying to force horses off the computer. The race was jumping out at me. This weekend was also an example of how FTL's guidelines - as conservative as they are (my opinion) - can save one from a world of hurt while multi-tracking. Yes, the occasional long layoff comebacker will win as will the occasional 20-1/30-1 ML horse. However, as his database suggests, it will narrow the scope down to the real contenders as well as point to races that should be passed. An Oaklawn race where I narrowed the field down to 5 horses, 2 were 20-1 ML. I hid a horse that appeared to have not much of an edge and kept the bombs and a horse at shorter odds. The hide won and the bomb, while thrilling me until the final 1/16th, faded. If I hide the bombers, I hit the race dutching 3 horses. These are decisions you have to live with. Of course, had the bomber wired the field, this example would be moot. Nonetheless, there is clearly validity there. Bankroll pressure: as it was starting with $20, I was wagering too much from the outset and even when the account topped off just shy of $300, $10-20 a race was probably still too much. When things went south, $10-20 a race was definitely too much. I've said numerous times, there is a variance factor in all games of chance. Success is sustainable, but tough times are inevitable and the best players with the best discipline can ride the tough times out by cutting wagers back or taking multiple days off. The game is never ending. You can put it away and resume fresh a couple of days later. Race selection: Mitch and others have commented on the races I pick. Granted not the best for handicapping, but with my work schedule, typically the only races available. As FTL has suggested, finding playable races takes skill. I am still learning that. Process: My proudest takeaway. I have a structure which is dependable and consistent race to race. Again, I need to focus on working with the horses that are somewhat recent and are not huge ML, but I have faith in my process. 20-race cycles: I strayed a bit after the first one. In fact, the only reason I knew my status of the 2nd one was by going through my account summaries today. I need to chart religiously these cycles. Modeling/Profiling: I didn't do either. Perhaps a fatal flaw hurting me. Some races would show a 3rd tier BL/BL as tops in Rx and vice-versa. I got in trouble a few times mixing usage between those tier methods. I chose to stick with BL/BL after that to keep consistent. That being said, I need to test which one works best for me and stick with it. Also, Keith is an advocate of track profiles. It can definitely help when making final decisions regarding horses ranked near the bottom or bottom tiers whether they stay or go. I hope you enjoyed my journey. I am sure that there will be comments and suggestions. I am open to all feedback. I want to thank everyone for their feedback the past month. It is valuable and I take it to heart. This isn't the end but rather a beginning for me with the Methodology. -Jeebs (Tim)