Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 12-12-2016, 12:46 PM

Now that wagering SET OF RULES I suggested, must be individual to the relative player based upon HIS known strengths. I do best with speed horses so my wagering hierarchy always includes a look at those contenders first over the others....I also know that up front horses win almost 6 out of every nine races nationally (Dr William Quirin, Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping).

Always keep in mind that the national average of favorites winning has moved up to around 36% these days. Expressed as probability that is around 1/2.75 or odds of 1.75 to one (between 8/5 and 9/5). So realize that in hitting to JUST BREAK EVEN, one has to get around 9/5 or higher. Very very hard to make money long term with payouts like that. Realize too that the MORE you can prove that the favorite is vulnerable, the more chance for a good payout when the favorite is odds on.

Brisnet "at a glance" helps you find the tracks where the favorites do not do too well. Here is how things went at the recently concluded meeting at Del Mar:
DEL MAR AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 5.02 – 1
Favorite Win%: 33%, Favorite Itm%: 66%

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2016/...cember-5-2016/

This will insure you to stay away from meetings like Finger Lakes where, at times, the winning favorites are over 43% and make you look more at Laurel where for long periods it was around 29%. Laurel had big competitive fields too and is in the middle of a big reconstruction effort in order to draw more support from the betting public: GOOD SIGNS.

Size of field: Stay away from races (unless you find very good value on a single) that have 7 or fewer horses. Exotics here do not return well versus the risk usually, NOT ALWAYS. Each should be approached with an open mind and with the knowledge of what does well at the course you are most familiar with. The larger the field (particular in "boutique" meets with few big monied interests in the pool, i.e. Oaklawn) spread out the wagering so that the favorite usually comes in with a higher than normal odds.

Dick Mitchell (Winning Thoroughbred Strategies) reported a study of long term betting at three tracks (believe they were all on the west coast). He found that through the program (from 1st to nightcap) the odds on the favorite usually ROSE. His explanation was that the crowd was "chasing" lost dollars later in the program and suggested that more effort be placed LATE than early. I have found this to be true in general.

For all those BOTTOM LINE folks all this boils down to is ONLY accepting value for your investment dollar. Look at other fields of investment: no realtor will pay 300K for a house worth 301K, nor would a stock analyst suggest buying a stock or commodity that will only get a 2% return (unless you are a REAL fat cat).

Some interesting tip I have gleaned and these come from The New Expert Handicappers by James Quinn.

p. 124 "If things have been going from bad to worse, go to the races but get in the betting lines late. The idea is to get shut out. If you get shut out and the horses lose, you'll feel buoyed up. It helps lift the spirits."

p. 110 " I found that may habits handicappers engage in REFLEXIVELY actually have deleterious effects lang haul." NEVER turn the mind off, be critical each step of the way consistently.

p. 58 Lee Rousso has one of my all time favorites; "Pretend the window is a mile away, suggests Rousso. If the horse looks good enough to walk a mile to bet, that's a strong opinion. That's the horse to load up on."

The chapter by George Kaywood is worth the entire book.

A true classic of course (and it works I must tell you) was the idea that Howard Sartin had about the rubber band around the wrist as negative feedback.

Think of this as OVERDEVELOPED muscles in one side of your game (handicapping) and UNDERDEVELOPED muscles on the other (Wagering) To do well we need symmetry of effort.

12-12-2016, 12:46 PM	#59
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Now that wagering SET OF RULES I suggested, must be individual to the relative player based upon HIS known strengths. I do best with speed horses so my wagering hierarchy always includes a look at those contenders first over the others....I also know that up front horses win almost 6 out of every nine races nationally (Dr William Quirin, Winning at the Races: Computer Discoveries in Thoroughbred Handicapping). Always keep in mind that the national average of favorites winning has moved up to around 36% these days. Expressed as probability that is around 1/2.75 or odds of 1.75 to one (between 8/5 and 9/5). So realize that in hitting to JUST BREAK EVEN, one has to get around 9/5 or higher. Very very hard to make money long term with payouts like that. Realize too that the MORE you can prove that the favorite is vulnerable, the more chance for a good payout when the favorite is odds on. Brisnet "at a glance" helps you find the tracks where the favorites do not do too well. Here is how things went at the recently concluded meeting at Del Mar: DEL MAR AT A GLANCE Avg. Winning Odds: 5.02 – 1 Favorite Win%: 33%, Favorite Itm%: 66% http://www.brisnet.com/content/2016/...cember-5-2016/ This will insure you to stay away from meetings like Finger Lakes where, at times, the winning favorites are over 43% and make you look more at Laurel where for long periods it was around 29%. Laurel had big competitive fields too and is in the middle of a big reconstruction effort in order to draw more support from the betting public: GOOD SIGNS. Size of field: Stay away from races (unless you find very good value on a single) that have 7 or fewer horses. Exotics here do not return well versus the risk usually, NOT ALWAYS. Each should be approached with an open mind and with the knowledge of what does well at the course you are most familiar with. The larger the field (particular in "boutique" meets with few big monied interests in the pool, i.e. Oaklawn) spread out the wagering so that the favorite usually comes in with a higher than normal odds. Dick Mitchell (Winning Thoroughbred Strategies) reported a study of long term betting at three tracks (believe they were all on the west coast). He found that through the program (from 1st to nightcap) the odds on the favorite usually ROSE. His explanation was that the crowd was "chasing" lost dollars later in the program and suggested that more effort be placed LATE than early. I have found this to be true in general. For all those BOTTOM LINE folks all this boils down to is ONLY accepting value for your investment dollar. Look at other fields of investment: no realtor will pay 300K for a house worth 301K, nor would a stock analyst suggest buying a stock or commodity that will only get a 2% return (unless you are a REAL fat cat). Some interesting tip I have gleaned and these come from The New Expert Handicappers by James Quinn. p. 124 "If things have been going from bad to worse, go to the races but get in the betting lines late. The idea is to get shut out. If you get shut out and the horses lose, you'll feel buoyed up. It helps lift the spirits." p. 110 " I found that may habits handicappers engage in REFLEXIVELY actually have deleterious effects lang haul." NEVER turn the mind off, be critical each step of the way consistently. p. 58 Lee Rousso has one of my all time favorites; "Pretend the window is a mile away, suggests Rousso. If the horse looks good enough to walk a mile to bet, that's a strong opinion. That's the horse to load up on." The chapter by George Kaywood is worth the entire book. A true classic of course (and it works I must tell you) was the idea that Howard Sartin had about the rubber band around the wrist as negative feedback. Think of this as OVERDEVELOPED muscles in one side of your game (handicapping) and UNDERDEVELOPED muscles on the other (Wagering) To do well we need symmetry of effort. __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."