[Mitch44]

kpmats10:

To solve any problem the first thing one must do is recognize that there is a problem.

Your own record keeping has shown your pace line selection is a huge problem and greatly contributes to that low 40% win rate. I follow the "Doc's" teachings of using the best of the last 3 at a similar distance and surface. There are several reasons why the last race may not be correct such as coming from off a layoff and needing that race and not performing to its true potential. Perhaps that race was just a conditioning race up in class to sit out the jail time off a claim etc. I try to stay within 1/2 F of todays distance and no more than 1 F max in selecting a pace line. The least you have to project the better off you are and races are just run different as distance increases.

In your own program using the DRF variant is basically ok in that your using a consistent procedure to do so. Anyone could argue for a better one but as long as you are consistent is a key. Where you may have a problem is how you proportion that variant among your fractions and figures. And that varies among different distances because at 6F the SC is 66.6666 % and at 8F its 75% so it depends weather your using SC & 3rd FR or all 3 FR's etc. I would investigate this with correct selected pace lines for a 20 race cycle to determine if that's the problem and whether your variant distribution can be improved upon. Getting from 40% to 60% + is more than just pace line selection. You can't just treat all race distances as 66.6666 % at the second call.

I still do post mortems, even knowing "The Hat" didn't believe in looking back. They can correct errors and really build your confidence knowing you made no mistake.

Not selecting correct pace lines and distributing a variant incorrectly will make your model useless because a model reflects your handicapping.

I understand when you say you invested much time and money into your own program. But I would recommend cutting your loses if your not winning and only getting 40% winners or making what you have better. The stuff in your program isn't the best of the Sartin stuff and was improved upon in later programs. RDSS contains all the latest programs up until the "Doc" passed and it can help you to pick better pace lines as just one example. Ted gives a free trial period so the cost is minimal or nothing if you just use the examples that come with it. With a free trial it won't cost you any further investment and you can determine if it ups your game or not.

I'm not a believer in the Fulcrum and stated some reasons as to why in another post, just 2 were mentioned above in using the last line. The Match Up is a valid concept and was the springboard for later programs and concepts.

Mitch44