Quote:
Originally Posted by kpmats10
I'm feeling a bit reflective. Maybe I'm just licking my wounds from a brutal weekend at the BC. But can I get a history lesson?
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The Sartin Methodology is a study of horse race analysis and betting practice which Doc Sartin conducted over 25+ years and which has been going on now for over 40 years. It is still going on today:
RDSS is a part of the history of the Sartin Methodology. In 2001, at the end of Doc's work, RDSS was known as Validator - in other words, RDSS (a modern Windows-based program) completely and accurately includes Validator, the culmination of Doc's work (along with much else which is still highly congruent with Doc's approach).
Doc's work started with the 'legendary' group of truck drivers convicted of gambling offenses in the late 70s. By whatever poetic stroke of insight and phraseology, he came up with the thesis '
the cure to losing is winning'. It became the motto of the Methodology and lead to all subsequent fact-based enquiries, including the collaboration of many brilliant minds, to prove and elaborate on that idea. Line scores, track class levels, velocity ratings, The Matchup, track profiles and decision (Brohamer) models, point-based Early/Late ratings (TPR), incremental energy disbursement, deceleration, weighted line scores ...
Each subsequent line of enquiry created a foundation for the next enquiry. With each phase, Doc sought to make the process simpler and more straightforward for those interested in making money and checking their egos in the process - without ever succumbing to the simple easy system-seller rules approach of get-rich-quick artists and childish gamblers' fantasies. Anyone who knew Howard, knew ONE thing at least: he CARED about people; he cared about their experience and success in this particular domain, and he cared even more deeply about those who were serious about understanding and applying the ideas he and the group had uncovered. I think he cared more deeply about that than about making money selling software, subscriptions and seminars. Even if he sometimes doubted it in his final years, on that very basis of caring and love alone - he died a very rich man.
So -- it is inconceivable to me that his later works in the Methodology including his final efforts on Validator (and thus --> RDSS) would willfully EXCLUDE useful and valuable tools from earlier phases. He thought Validator was all you needed.
Here is what he thought in 2007 about RDSS.
Thus -- if anyone wants to simply dig in and start using the culmination of 40 years of Doc Sartin's thinking on horse racing analysis and betting -- they should simply pay a modest annual fee and start using RDSS. As mentioned, it includes the various flavours and phases of Doc's work. If anyone wants to try out RDSS 2.1 (under development, warts and all) just ask.
All the foregoing built in numbers and adjustments, plus good software tools, has permitted us to use a large measure of automation to select representative pacelines and make Contender choices (although:
individual freedom of choice is ALWAYS permitted, for better or for worse). RDSS 2.1 has a new factor Rx, itself a weighted line score of other line scores and other factors like Class (a new and better Class rating), Consistency, public opinion, Early/Late bias. These alone help you get the winner in the Top 4 75-80% of the time (depending on race type and field size) and 80-90% Top 5 -- at better final odds by rank, than Morning Line odds, post time odds or any previous composite factor rank in Methodology history. Out of the box, you start with high level rankings of true contenders: then your work begins, finding good pools to wager in, assessing whether a given race or multi-race wager is priced to your advantage, given the unknowns.
I appreciate those who have favourite aspects of the various phases of the Methodology, and The Matchup. We all have history and affection for that history, and/or we all have particular and individual styles of learning or ways of seeing and understanding. We all have inherent biases towards what works, or at least what works best for us. I would not tell ANYONE that the way they apply the Methodology, using RDSS to do it or not, is inferior to another way. Thankfully, not much advice is necessary: our wager records tell the incontrovertible tale, if sometimes an uncomfortable one.
I got a new car last year, a sporty red Nissan Juke, goes fast (sometimes too fast ...) very fun to drive, very safe and functional in Canadian winters. It's not a Tesla or Humvee, but it is pretty much near the culmination of 120 years of automotive engineering. If the 'apocolypse' comes - I could not reproduce that car myself, I don't really understand combustion engines let alone petroleum exploration and refinement, nor do I understand modern medicine, nor jet airplanes, nor computer transistors and hard drives or how the internet and web servers are truly put together in a functional manner. I mean -- while I USE all these modern tools to live my life, and while I even have a passing interest in the HISTORY of these conveniences, really - what I want is to employ them to get a job done or to live a lifestyle.
I say -- forget about the past history of the Methodology and focus on the 'current history'. I agree, all the Follow Ups and manuals and audios and videos can be too much, except for long term study, understanding how we got
here from
there, and delving for nuggets of improvement (which ARE there to be found). There needs to be an Archive somewhere on the internet about what Doc did. But I suspect Doc would say that it could lead to too much confusion: start with and stick to current tools (and DID say precisely that in almost every later Follow Up).
We have GREAT analysis tools - better now than in Doc's day, and likely they will get even better. We really don't need many better factors and ratings. My focus in RDSS 2.1, and what will ultimately determine its release schedule sometime next year, is the following broad areas: 1) record keeping, 2) wager construction and submission, 3) deeper tote board and money flow analysis. Those, together with the existing superior and largely automated analysis tools, are how to profit at horse race betting.
You are warmly welcomed to make as much use of these as you wish!
Take care, good luck, good skill!
Ted