[Tim Y]

At FIRST, tis best to completely DISREGARD all else but the rules of the methodology....It is THE HORSE, THE HORSE, THE HORSE and not the rider, ferrier, hotwalker, groom, vet, or trainer who run out there.

Just an idea: try to find current pacelines that reflect decent early paces of race. DON'T get fooled by a high speed rating in a router that goes in something like 49 4/5 and 1:14 2/5 as it will project too good as compared with animals coming in from paces of races like 47.3/5, 1:12 2/5, IF you see horses that ran S or S/P all the time wiht a single LATE in the list, forget the LATE line. Use the higher rated E/EP lines as your guide because if an animal is not CLOSE to the pace, (EXCEPT ON THE GRASS) they have little chance of getting up. As a matter of fact, horses that rule the first fraction OFTEN sneak off wire to wire and boxcars MUCH more often than a late one catching a collapsing pace.

To make the match up "work" best, one needs to find SIMILAR paces of race that the contenders ran against. Having a similar yardstick for comparison makes it easier. Unless there is a real complete DROP in a horses form. DON'T be afraid to go back many lines to find one that is similar. One sure sign of a horse going off form is if the last three races are similar (pace of race) and the horse is running less INTO the contest over the last three, i.e. rising % median.

Let the ODDS board, NOT THE RANKINGS in the program direct your wagers. It is a game of gambling not handicapping and let the markets offered be you guide...In the LONG run it will make a considerable difference.