Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Tim Y · 08-01-2016, 06:34 AM

Let the ODDS board be your elimination platform, NOT a handicapping factor.

Get the top group (total energy is a FAR better final elimination or deceleration as few horses win above 108% or below 98% win on the lawn, or pace of race) then see how the CROWD evaluates them.

This is ultimately a wagering game is it not? Spend MORE time on that side of the equation and stop splitting hairs on the capping side. If two horses present close to the same readouts, always take the longer odds opportunity. Forget about the RANK of each horse as it chases people off good betting chances. Look for the mismatches between YOUR projected probability and the odds board's.

IT is, at times, a difficult task switching between the art of the handicapping challenge (where there is NO ONE WAY TO GO) and the more rigid, cold and calculating RULE based wagering standards of the betting side of the equation. Realize that the national average of favorites winning is around 34-36% which is probability wise in the 2/1 range. IF YOU CANNOT GET at LEAST 2/1 stay away from the public choice as it represents NEGATIVE EXPECTATION.

If an odds on horse ranks top (like Lexie Lou would 95% of the time) either don't waste another moment on the race, or key that one in an exotic. Any more I will not touch at race unless there are at least 7 entrants and the TOP capping horse has something about it that does not create confidence in a wager. ...otherwise, let the suckers bet that one and move on.

Also, where weather makes a difference, chart the speed tendencies of each winner coming INTO the card to see whether a bias is evolving. They come and go so often that one has to be aware of them IN ADVANCE to make them work for you. Look for a REAL Bias not just front runners that figure winning, I mean there have to be faint hearted animals regularly hanging on to be counted a true bias. Often the relative e/l readings versus the standards for the tracks distance will be skewed to the positive side (i.e. average may be +12 for sprints and +20 horses are winning).

08-01-2016, 06:34 AM	#26
Tim Y turf historian Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 6,455	Let the ODDS board be your elimination platform, NOT a handicapping factor. Get the top group (total energy is a FAR better final elimination or deceleration as few horses win above 108% or below 98% win on the lawn, or pace of race) then see how the CROWD evaluates them. This is ultimately a wagering game is it not? Spend MORE time on that side of the equation and stop splitting hairs on the capping side. If two horses present close to the same readouts, always take the longer odds opportunity. Forget about the RANK of each horse as it chases people off good betting chances. Look for the mismatches between YOUR projected probability and the odds board's. IT is, at times, a difficult task switching between the art of the handicapping challenge (where there is NO ONE WAY TO GO) and the more rigid, cold and calculating RULE based wagering standards of the betting side of the equation. Realize that the national average of favorites winning is around 34-36% which is probability wise in the 2/1 range. IF YOU CANNOT GET at LEAST 2/1 stay away from the public choice as it represents NEGATIVE EXPECTATION. If an odds on horse ranks top (like Lexie Lou would 95% of the time) either don't waste another moment on the race, or key that one in an exotic. Any more I will not touch at race unless there are at least 7 entrants and the TOP capping horse has something about it that does not create confidence in a wager. ...otherwise, let the suckers bet that one and move on. Also, where weather makes a difference, chart the speed tendencies of each winner coming INTO the card to see whether a bias is evolving. They come and go so often that one has to be aware of them IN ADVANCE to make them work for you. Look for a REAL Bias not just front runners that figure winning, I mean there have to be faint hearted animals regularly hanging on to be counted a true bias. Often the relative e/l readings versus the standards for the tracks distance will be skewed to the positive side (i.e. average may be +12 for sprints and +20 horses are winning). __________________ Albert Einstein:"The monotony and solitude of a quiet life stimulates the creative mind."