Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y
what I found BASIC to the Sartin Methodology,is that PACE is Class, Class is pace.
Horse's have NO idea what HUMAN level they are running against ONLY TIME.
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Hi Tim
I agree with some of what you say, Generally I don't pay much attention
to slight differences in claiming prices or allowance to sprint changes
Man made class values are flawed, The horse either has the ability or it does not.
The basics you mention is actually Speed is class and class is speed
in the Sartin methodology we measure class as total energy
Also a basic valid excuse for a poor effort is "first try at track in the current meet"
Horse 1 Commute . Has never run at Woodbine. It shows 3 graded stakes races
It earned a plus race in only one of them earning a 165.4 but this is a projected number from a 5.5 sprint.
Horse 2 Full Mast Has never run at Woodbine.
This foreign horse shows 4 grades stakes races but we have no total energy ratings
Horse 3 Smoke Kitten Has never run at Woodbine. This one shows 3 graded stakes races
earning 1 plus race earning a 168.1 total energy
Horse 4 Hammerstein Has run multiple times at Woodbine It shows 3 graded stakes races.
In its best effort in a plus race routing it earned a 163.4 total energy
Horse 5 Tesseron Has run multiple times at Woodbine
It shows 3 graded stakes races. It has never run a plus race in a graded stakes race.
In its best effort routing in a graded stake, it earned a 167.5 total energy
Horse 6 Stolen Tribute Has run multiple times at Woodbine but has not run on the new Tepeda surface so this is a valid excuse candidate, In its only graded stakes race it ran poorly finishing 7th of 8 with a total energy of 166.7
Horse 7 Tower of Texas Same as horse 6 This one has run multiple times at Woodbine but has not run on he new Tepeda
surface so this is a valid excuse candidate, It shows 3 graded races In its only plus graded race it earned only a 164.2 total energy.
Horse 8 Dimesion Shows a recent race over the new Woodbine surface, 27 days ago.
It shows
6 grades stakes races Earning plus races in 2 of them. In its best effort it earned
a 164.8
Horse 9 was scratched
The top 3 finishers were horse 8, 6 and 7
All three have run in graded stakes earning comparable total energy figures
The winner #8 has two powerful factors
1. It was run over the track recently
2. It has run in 6 graded stakes races, The most in the field
Another basic of the methodology is the horse runs the race
In the methodology we base our easement of a horses ability by choosing pace lines that represent what we expect to happen. I expect faster total energy times in graded stakes races than claiming races
Doc said that a horses past pace lines will determine if a horse belongs
in todays race
Yes the 3 horses you mention Horse 1 2 and 3 have flawed numbers .
but I am seeing their loses do to shipping in to a new surface and inability against comparable completion
Thanks