[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by DanBoals

Ted

Both the 4 and 8 figured as contenders based on their BL/BL, but I eliminated both of them because of their E/L being too early. With them both being plus E/L, I didn't think either had a chance. With a lone early speed, even on turf, they have a chance, but with multiple horses too early, I eliminated them. Leaving the ones you see above, that are all negative on E/L. The 9 looks really sketchy based on his last couple races, but when you go back and look at his 3 7f turf races, he did well in all of them, and since today was a 7f turf, I used one of those older lines. Hope this explains my "logic", anytime you hit a 74-1 horse, there is obviously some luck involved... but thanks to the software and to Mark's pointers, I went back a little bit on the 9, looked at his body of work, and included him.

Dan

Thanks Dan for that elaboration - all makes sense. And thanks Mark for the (recurring) discussion about the layoff, return to work cycle of horses, and trainer intentions. 74-1 buys you a LOT of latitude for giving horses in such scenarios a shot!

Ted