Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post

Mark · 06-16-2016, 11:03 AM

Dan and I worked on POWER LINES and their selection as appropriate pacelines two weeks ago in a series of races. So if I may, I'd like to comment on this 74/1 winner.
What does a significant layoff mean? What layoff return patterns have been shown extremely profitable for decades?
A 200+ day layoff means that the owner felt his horse worthy of going to the farm, paying monthly expenses and feed bills to say nothing of Vet bills. If the horse was broken beyond repair we would never see him again. What we see here is the mandatory public workout for a horse that hasn't raced in 60 days: a moderate 37 and change 3f. If a horse is able to work that fast, he has been in training at the farm. At minor league venues they are not going to spoil their opportunity to put a horse over at a big price by showing a month or more of sharp works because in most cases they have bills to pay. Now they race the horse twice on the dirt and yesterday he was going onto his preferred surface. Historically, 3rd after a significant layoff is a high reward angle.
We have to assume that the a horse returning from a significant layoff is a "NEW" horse. He is happy and healthy and returning to work. All he lacks is racing fitness. I look for horses that have had about 1/2f of work and races in the last 30 days. Those horses will be approaching peak fitness. Cheaper horses rarely progress in their racing after a long layoff in a linear fashion. They JUMP and if the indications are that they are returning to distance and surface that they previously excelled at prior to that layoff, it will be the MONEY RUN.
At 15/1 this horse was a bet because until you get good at recognizing these horses you may only hit one in ten. At 74/1 Dan pulled the trigger with a $15 WPS bet. Giving himself a little room in case racing luck worked against him. At 74/1 the place price even with the favorite would make most peoples' day.
Bradshaw was adamant about looking at all 10 pps for each horse, that in the right circumstances anyone of those lines could be selected. Evaluate the pps from the bottom up!! There is a story there that you will begin to understand over time. By focusing on the last 3 lines you do yourself no favor and will never get this kind of horse. Dan got the message and in less than 2 weeks he has a score that most of us drool over.

06-16-2016, 11:03 AM	#6
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	What does a significant layoff mean? Dan and I worked on POWER LINES and their selection as appropriate pacelines two weeks ago in a series of races. So if I may, I'd like to comment on this 74/1 winner. What does a significant layoff mean? What layoff return patterns have been shown extremely profitable for decades? A 200+ day layoff means that the owner felt his horse worthy of going to the farm, paying monthly expenses and feed bills to say nothing of Vet bills. If the horse was broken beyond repair we would never see him again. What we see here is the mandatory public workout for a horse that hasn't raced in 60 days: a moderate 37 and change 3f. If a horse is able to work that fast, he has been in training at the farm. At minor league venues they are not going to spoil their opportunity to put a horse over at a big price by showing a month or more of sharp works because in most cases they have bills to pay. Now they race the horse twice on the dirt and yesterday he was going onto his preferred surface. Historically, 3rd after a significant layoff is a high reward angle. We have to assume that the a horse returning from a significant layoff is a "NEW" horse. He is happy and healthy and returning to work. All he lacks is racing fitness. I look for horses that have had about 1/2f of work and races in the last 30 days. Those horses will be approaching peak fitness. Cheaper horses rarely progress in their racing after a long layoff in a linear fashion. They JUMP and if the indications are that they are returning to distance and surface that they previously excelled at prior to that layoff, it will be the MONEY RUN. At 15/1 this horse was a bet because until you get good at recognizing these horses you may only hit one in ten. At 74/1 Dan pulled the trigger with a $15 WPS bet. Giving himself a little room in case racing luck worked against him. At 74/1 the place price even with the favorite would make most peoples' day. Bradshaw was adamant about looking at all 10 pps for each horse, that in the right circumstances anyone of those lines could be selected. Evaluate the pps from the bottom up!! There is a story there that you will begin to understand over time. By focusing on the last 3 lines you do yourself no favor and will never get this kind of horse. Dan got the message and in less than 2 weeks he has a score that most of us drool over.