Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up - View Single Post - RDSS 2.1 --> on HOLD

Ted Craven · 05-24-2016, 06:07 PM

Surprise! In fact, they are the Top CR Class Rating horses (and not Morning Line Odds). And the 4th CR ranked horse is shown in bold (as is the custom for all factor ranks on all screens: red/green/yellow/bold = rank 1-2-3-4). These ranks are shown on ALL Analysis screens. A shortcut way of identifying highly consistent contenders, across all tracks, surfaces, distances, competition levels (although, NOT a successful final and profitable separation of contenders). As discussed below, this rating is NOT related to speed, pace or velocity, and thus gives a useful 'non-correlated' measurement for discovering true contenders. Note: the improved CR+ rating in RDSS 2.1 works even better, as documented in Bill Lyster's Statistical study of V2.1 factors.

CR is our Class Rating, derived from APV Average Purse Value competed in, plus ITM consistency plus Earnings per Start.

I used the Google Site search for 'CR Class Rating formula' and found this post of mine from Dec 17, 2012. Also, a reference to an old Follow Up with the formula used, and a link to an older RDSS Release Notes documentation for CR is given. Enjoy!

CR is based on Earnings, Consistency and Average Purse Value relative to today's purse, in the most recent 6 starts this year, or on all starts this year and last year if less than 6 starts this year. It has nothing to do with the conditions of those races or of today's race (i.e. Claiming, Allowance, etc).

The precise formula for CR and APV is published in Follow Up #5, Page 7 (check the Library).

Here is a link to the RDSS V0.97.0 (http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...Notes_0970.pdf) Release Notes, where APV and CR were introduced, with some further notes (please see point #3)

This is an overall measurement of the horse's competitiveness and consistency, relative to today's class level of race as expressed by Purse Value (thus earnings) and not by velocity or how it ran against the pace of race, nor on the horse's movements up and down the race condition hierarchy. It also does not factor in recency, current fitness, suitability to today's pace matchup, etc. These latter Condender measurements are done by selecting representative recent pacelines (single lines, but hopefully corroborated by other lines when the horse ran well and was fit and properly placed).

Interestingly, CR and APV (Average Purse Value, a portion of which is used in the CR calculation) since they are based on money earnings and consistency and not on speed or velocity or deceleration - are non-correlated variables (i.e. they are based on different measures) - so, when you get a degree of match between Contenders which rank well on CR and which also rank well on velocity/energy measurements (and also appear to be in good current form) - you then have the synergy of looking at the horse from 2 different directions and confirmation that it is real today.

Hope that helps!

Ted

05-24-2016, 06:07 PM	#16
Ted Craven Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Posts: 9,252	Surprise! In fact, they are the Top CR Class Rating horses (and not Morning Line Odds). And the 4th CR ranked horse is shown in bold (as is the custom for all factor ranks on all screens: red/green/yellow/bold = rank 1-2-3-4). These ranks are shown on ALL Analysis screens. A shortcut way of identifying highly consistent contenders, across all tracks, surfaces, distances, competition levels (although, NOT a successful final and profitable separation of contenders). As discussed below, this rating is NOT related to speed, pace or velocity, and thus gives a useful 'non-correlated' measurement for discovering true contenders. Note: the improved CR+ rating in RDSS 2.1 works even better, as documented in Bill Lyster's Statistical study of V2.1 factors. CR is our Class Rating, derived from APV Average Purse Value competed in, plus ITM consistency plus Earnings per Start. I used the Google Site search for 'CR Class Rating formula' and found this post of mine from Dec 17, 2012. Also, a reference to an old Follow Up with the formula used, and a link to an older RDSS Release Notes documentation for CR is given. Enjoy! CR is based on Earnings, Consistency and Average Purse Value relative to today's purse, in the most recent 6 starts this year, or on all starts this year and last year if less than 6 starts this year. It has nothing to do with the conditions of those races or of today's race (i.e. Claiming, Allowance, etc). The precise formula for CR and APV is published in Follow Up #5, Page 7 (check the Library). Here is a link to the RDSS V0.97.0 (http://www.sartinmethodology.com/pub...Notes_0970.pdf) Release Notes, where APV and CR were introduced, with some further notes (please see point #3) This is an overall measurement of the horse's competitiveness and consistency, relative to today's class level of race as expressed by Purse Value (thus earnings) and not by velocity or how it ran against the pace of race, nor on the horse's movements up and down the race condition hierarchy. It also does not factor in recency, current fitness, suitability to today's pace matchup, etc. These latter Condender measurements are done by selecting representative recent pacelines (single lines, but hopefully corroborated by other lines when the horse ran well and was fit and properly placed). Interestingly, CR and APV (Average Purse Value, a portion of which is used in the CR calculation) since they are based on money earnings and consistency and not on speed or velocity or deceleration - are non-correlated variables (i.e. they are based on different measures) - so, when you get a degree of match between Contenders which rank well on CR and which also rank well on velocity/energy measurements (and also appear to be in good current form) - you then have the synergy of looking at the horse from 2 different directions and confirmation that it is real today. Hope that helps! Ted __________________ RDSS - Racing Decision Support System™ Last edited by Ted Craven; 05-24-2016 at 06:12 PM.