Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill V.
From a private message question,
and please don't ever consider asking questions anything but welcomed learning for all.
This is in regards to this posted race
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...98&postcount=1
Why would I use a 8 furlong pace line for a 10 furlong race
Doc's guidelines are to use lines within a furlong of today's distance
I used a mile line for both the winner and the place horse
For the 1 I suppose i should have used line 2, but line 2 at 8.5 is also more than 1 furlong short.
For the winner #4 I used the last line Its from 1 mile, Line 2 is from 8.5
so again It still doe not make the guidelines. However l iine 2 to me looks like
a trouble trip. It does not say so in the comments but looking at the position the horse normally runs and its TPR readouts, Line 2 looks just like it just did
not fire, But It has run well at 8.5 in the past.
I stayed with the last line.
Doc offers guidelines not rules |
Let's look at Bill V.'s chosen pacelines and the TPR match up
Evaluating the early match-up, we noticed that there are no early horses and that the whole field runs late, which should be no surprise; as these are all turf runners.
We can quickly eliminate #2 Shyshe and #6 Cornish. We can eliminate Shyshe because if she runs early as does #4 Agustina; but if you match just these two with only TPR numbers, we can see that #4 Agustina has a better late kick than #2 Shyshe. #6 Cornish has the lowest CPR total of 181.0.
Now with the remaining four contenders; most Sartin programs will have #1 Artistic and #3 Moon Over and #4 Agustina in that particular order. Now some will "wagercap" or there are others who will take the best value; or those who will hide the favorite.....
But can we evaluate this match-up better? More "optimal"?????
Let's look at this match-up with Bill V.'s chosen pacelines in one of Doc Sartin program but it should be readily available in most programs including RDSS.
Let's focus on the F1 or First Call matchup in this race and let's evaluate what we can discern or to detect a match-up advantage in this race.
We can see that #4 Augustina has a HUGE early 1st Call advantage over this field. Her advantage at the first call is almost +0.70 energy points over her nearest rival. If she can conserve energy in the early pace of this match-up; #4 Augustina will have more energy for the rest of the race. #4 Augustina will be able to run faster than the 102.3 LPR from her last paceline.
In the seminars that I had attended with Doc Sartin and the expert users of Energy like Glen Connolly; Glen the "General from Maryland" talked about the 100's horses who dominated the early match- up readouts. They are dangerous if left alone on the early pace. Especially if they have two 100's on the match-up screens. F1 and F2 columns These horses are usually ranked third or fourth on V/DC or B/L screens nowadays in updated programs.
This is just my humble opinion and from my own experiences with the Sartin Methodology.
