This is one of my favorite spot plays and I look for it all the time
To review I quote FTL
Quote:
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This is a ONE MILE race, with a short run to the first turn. Early horses from the inside will benefit. Early horses on the outside will NOT benefit. Why? Because the horses on the outside have to go wide around the first turn, causing them to lose ground, especially if/when they have to try and outrun a superior early horse on the inside. If they can't get out of the gate with enough speed to cross over the field (without interferring) and get to the rail, they are in trouble.
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Yesterday Race 6 at Turf Paradise, what did I see, Yes !!!
a one mile route the favorite is # 8 -- The outside post and its an Early runner.
I blocked out my TS bet but lets say it was over normal ,
Here is my work up
Step 1 Run each horse's last pace line , take note of the top 5 TPR.
Top 5 TPR Line 1
5 8 7 6 1
Step 2
Find The Fulcrum = find the best EPR of a horse from the last line that is within 5 bl at the 2nd call and final time
Fulcrum 80
Step 3
Mark the running styles
Running styles
Horse 1 EP Line 1
Horse 2 Presser 1
Horse 3 Sus Line 1
Horse 4 EP line 1 sprinter
Horse 5 Sus line 1
Horse 6 Early Line 1
Horse 7 Press line 1
Horse 8 Early line 1
Step 4
Who are the best Earlys
The 8 has the best EPR 90
Early BUT ITS OUTSIDE !!!
Now will the 8 with a low 77 LPR
be able to hold on .
Step 5
Rate the Early , then the Pressers , Then the Substantiated
The top TPR horses are 8 7 and 5
Step 6
Check the VDC readout
Top 3 VDC 7 6 (1-8 )
My bets 7-5
Here is a new improved TPR screen,
with the VDC rankings in percentage from the best
I will post the pps next