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Old 02-25-2016, 12:25 AM   #10
lone speed
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 695
Post from Tipton A Gilbert

Bill,
Thanks for sharing your "modus oparandi"

Now if I can somehow optimize the best procedures from your method and those of Tipton A Gilbert.

Quote:
Procedure


Basics: Do not play Maiden races, Turf races, Two year old races or Stakes and Handicap races. This leaves Claiming and Allowance races for past winners three years old and older, run on dirt or poly surface.

Scratch horses with ML odds of 15 or more in the longer races; usually 12 numbered entrants, and those with ML odds of 10 or more in the shorter races; usually 8 numbered entrants or less.

Approach:

1. Begin with the first remaining horse and go through all the remaining field before making any adjustments.

2. Click on POH and choose the best 2nd call time (2C) for each horse from it's last 2 races only. If both times are equal, or very close, use the one with the best true speed (TS) rating. Use the proper distance and surface when available.

3. Check each horse and make adjustments as required to agree with the following:
A. If 2nd line was a Maiden race use the last race regardless of it's 2C value. Maiden winners off their last line should be going down in Class. If going up, and it has several races before it's win,
eliminate.
B. If the horse has not run in 60 days or more, use the last line regardless of it's 2C value. Comeback horses seldom improve off of their last line.

4. Click on Analysis, then on Adjusted, then on BL|BL.
A. Check the adjusted Speed Ratings (SR) showing and if any appears to be too high in comparison to
the others, click on that horse and check the adjusted SRs to see if it's previous ratings support the
rating chosen. If not supported, change line 2 to line 1. If line 1 was previously chosen, eliminate
this horse.
B. Return to BL|BL and eliminate any horse whose SR is 8 points or more lower than the highest now shown.
C. Eliminate any comeback horse and any maiden winners ranked 3rd of worse.

5. Click on Energy and eliminate any horse whose value is 4 whole points or more below the highest.

6. Click on Adjusted, then POH, and eliminate any horse whose value is 2 whole points below the highest.

7. Click on Adjusted then POR and reduce the field to 3 contenders, eliminating the lowest TS value first then the next lowest and so on. If 2 or more are tied go to BL\BL and eliminate the lowest of those tied using the BL\BL rankings.

Notes:

1. When the TS ranking order under POR is different than the TS ranking order under BL\BL, be careful. Be especially careful when POR\TS #1 is ranked 3rd on BL\BL. This can indicate a day when nothing seems to work properly.

2. After checking late scratches, rework any race where one of the 3 BL\BL horses was scratched.

3. In sprint races, 2nd call beaten lengths under Segments can sometimes be helpful in eliminating POR\TS ties 3 or more are tied for best value.
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