Forum: General Discussion
12-27-2020, 12:15 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 519
Instead of opinions, I prefer to deal in...
Instead of opinions, I prefer to deal in statistical facts when analyzing horse racing:
1. EVERY horse in a race has some chance to win. Win probability on some approaches 50%, win probability...
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Forum: General Discussion
11-15-2020, 08:37 PM
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Replies: 5
Views: 830
Contender Selection Benchmarks
From Ken Massa of HTR:
"The holy grail for contender selection is to eliminate 50% of the horses, while retaining 90% of the winners. Take it from someone who has tested this to exhaustion, it is...
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Forum: Selections
11-01-2020, 06:36 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 312
Recap
Recap:
r1: B(7)-B(4):, $1 ex $19.00
r2: C(6)-A(12): Outright miss, do not bet C horses to win or on top in ex, paid $23.00 to win
r3: X(5)-B(3): Outright miss, winner paid $68.00
r4:...
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Forum: Selections
11-01-2020, 01:11 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 312
BEL Full Card 11/1/20
BEL Full Card 11/1/20:
Mandatory p6 payout today races 4-9, $0.20 min bet, $419,254 carryover
As = primary contenders, likely winners
Bs = secondary contenders, next most likely to win if As...
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Forum: Races of Interest
10-31-2020, 10:23 AM
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Replies: 8
Views: 855
This was a race for cripples: bottom of the...
This was a race for cripples: bottom of the barrel claimer for NW2 LIFETIME. The 3 horse took 7 tries to win a bottom of the barrel MAIDEN claimer, then was off 6 months before trying again at...
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Forum: Selections
10-25-2020, 11:06 AM
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Replies: 5
Views: 348
Results?
Nice to see more board members posting selections. HOWEVER, if you post selections WITHOUT following up with a recap/summary of results, you are wasting everyone's time. Follow the model of Lt1 if...
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Forum: Selections
09-07-2020, 10:26 AM
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Replies: 2
Views: 429
Recap
Recap:
r1: A(6)-B(3)
r2: B(8)-A(7)
r3: C(6)-B(3)
r4: B(9)-A(7)
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Forum: Selections
09-06-2020, 03:38 PM
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Replies: 2
Views: 429
DMR Full Card 9/6/20
DMR Full Card 9/6/20:
r1: As 2-6, Bs 3, Cs 4-5, Xs 1: contentious, fav vulnerable, 4 and 6 both need the lead, 6 should be speed of speed, if not 2 will close as will 5
r2: As 5-7, Bs 6-8,...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:56 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 899
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:37 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 410
Recap
Recap
r11: A(6)-A(4)
r12: C(4)-A(8)
r13: B(4)-A(1)
r14: A(18)-A(17)
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:33 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 363
Recap
Recap:
r6: B(2)-A(6)
r7: A(9)-A(10)
r8: B(8)-C(1)
r9: A(9)-X(8)
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:27 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 344
Recap
Recap:
r1: B(3)-B(5)
r2: B(7)-B(5)
r3: A(4)-A(6)
r4: A(5)-C(12)
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:23 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 345
Recap
recap:
r6: B(5)-A(4)
r7: A(1)-A(9)
r8: B(1)-A(2)
r9: B(7)-C(2)
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 08:16 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 339
Recap
Recap:
r1: A(6)-B(7)
r2: C(4)-B(2b)
r3: A(1)-B(5)
r4: A(1)-A(4)
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 12:50 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 345
Jim Dandy Day r 6-12 SAR 9/5/20
Jim Dandy Day r6-12 Sar 9/5/20:
r6: As 4-7, Bs 5-6, Cs 1-8, Xs 2-3: contentious, fav legit, 6 possible overlay value, needs the lead though
r7: As 1-7-9, Cs 2-3-4-5-8, Xs 6: chaos, fav...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 12:21 PM
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Replies: 1
Views: 410
Derby Day Races 11-14 CD 9//5/20
Derby Day Races 11-14 CD 9/5/20:
r11: As 4-6, Bs 2-3, Cs 7, Xs 8: chalky, fav legit, 4 needs the lead and get it, likely to be pounded by rebate syndicates, 6 closes if 4 fails
r12: As 8-9,...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 11:54 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 339
Jim Dandy Day Sar Early p5 9/5/20
Jim Dandy Day Sar Early p5 9/5/20
r1: As 3-6, Bs 1-2, Cs 4-7, Xs 5-8: contentious, fav legit, possible overlay value on 6
r2: As 1-6, Bs 2b, Cs 2-3-4-5: chalky, fav legit
r3: As 1-4, Bs...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 11:14 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 363
Derby Day Races 6-10 9/5/20
Derby Day Races 6-10 9/5/20:
r6: As 6-11, Bs 2-3-4-12, Cs 5-7-10, Xs 1: wide open, fav legit, possible overlay value on 4
r7: As 9-10, Bs 5-6-11-12, Cs 1-4-7, Xs 2-3-8: chaos, fav...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 10:47 AM
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Replies: 1
Views: 344
Derby Day Early p5 CD 9/5/20
Derby Day Early p5 CD 7/5/20:
r1: As 1-2, Bs 3-4-5: chalky, fav legit, possible overlay value on 4
r2: As 1-4-6, Bs 5-7, Cs 2: contentious, fav vulnerable, 5 is well meant FTS, this race a...
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Forum: Selections
09-05-2020, 09:29 AM
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Replies: 6
Views: 899
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Forum: Selections
09-02-2020, 08:22 PM
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Replies: 7
Views: 944
2020 KY Derby
2020 KY Derby Sat 9/5, post time 7:01 pm EDT:
r14: As 17-18, Bs 10-15-16, Cs 2-4-6, Xs 1-3-5-7-8-9-11-12-13-14: wide open, 18 needs the lead, will be challenged by 4 early, 2 and 17 best...
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Forum: Selections
09-02-2020, 07:55 PM
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Replies: 6
Views: 899
2020 KY Oaks
2020 KY Oaks, Fri 9/4, post time 5:45 EDT:
r12: As 1-5, Bs 4, Cs 3-7, Xs 2-6-8-9: chalky, 5 needs the lead, wins if can control pace, 1 will press and can win if runs back to Jun 6 race, 4 also...
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Forum: Selections
08-23-2020, 07:06 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 604
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Forum: Selections
08-23-2020, 06:16 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 604
Recap
Recap:
r1: B(4)-A(5): $2 win $19.80, $1 ex $33.00
r2: C(6)-B(1a): missed, winner paid $17.00
r3: A(5)-C(6): $1 ex $5.60
r4: A(2)-B(7): $1 ex $7.10, $1 DD $3.20
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Forum: Selections
08-23-2020, 12:11 PM
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Replies: 4
Views: 604
SAR Full Card 8/23/20 Mandatory p6 payout
SAR Full Card 8/23/20 Mandatory p6 payout (carryover $600,930, starts r4 at 2:54 EDT)
r1: As 5-6, Bs 1-4, Cs 2-3: contentious, fav vulnerable, 6 likely pounded by rebate syndicates, possible...
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